Research On Risk Management Of Electric-coal Supply Chain Based On System Dynamics

From January to June 2019,the national power generation capacity above designated size was 3,367.3 billion kWh,of which,thermal power generation was 2,448.7 billion kWh,accounting for 72.7%.Coal-fired power generation was the main form of thermal power generation,accounting for 88%.Therefore,coal is still the main energy for power generation in China,which determines that the safety of electric-coal supply chain is not only an economic issue,but also a major issue related to national life and work.However,the characteristics of the electric-coal supply chain are long chain,many enterprises involved,complex structure and large scale,which bring great challenges to the safe operation of the electric-coal supply chain.In the electric-coal supply chain,the upstream and downstream links are closely linked.If there is a risk in one link of the supply chain,it will inevitably threaten the operation of other links.It is necessary to focus on the transmission relationship between the risks.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the risk of the electric-coal supply chain.The purpose of this paper is to identify,evaluate and control the risk of the electric-coal supply chain,so as to provide decision support for the managers of the electric-coal supply chain.This paper analyzes the risk of electric-coal supply chain based on the mutual transfer relationship between risk factors.Firstly,in the risk identification of electric-coal supply chain,the nine key risk factors are identified by literature reading and analytical decomposition method,and then the mutual transfer relationship among the nine risk factors is deeply mined by system dynamics;Secondly,based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,controllable index of risk is introduced,and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,which combines the damage of risk factors,the possibility of occurrence of risk factors and controllable index of risk,is used to carry out static risk evaluation,and then the dynamic evaluation of electric-coal supply chain risk is carried out by combining the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the idea of system dynamics;Finally,the risk control model of coal supply chain based on system dynamics is constructed,and the optimal risk control measures are obtained.This paper takes H power plant as the core to conduct risk assessment and risk control for the thermal coal supply chain.it can be concluded that the production risk of electric coal ranks first in the dynamic assessment,and the lowest in the static assessment.That's because the risk of electric coal production is closely related to various risk factors,and the occurrence of other risks will directly or indirectly affect the production of electric coal.Therefore,the production risk of electric coal is a key factor to be paid attention to;In addition,the simulation results of risk control show that the risk control measures of capital operation link and coal production link have a significant impact on improving the overall safety level of coal supply chain.