An Analysis Of Factors Influencing China's Crude Oil External Dependence

With the rapid development of economy,China's consumption of crude oil is increasing year by year.At present,China's crude oil external dependence has reached 69.8%,which has a great impact on China's crude oil security.It is particularly necessary to accurately control and effectively prevent risk factors.This paper focuses on the production chain of petrochemical industry from crude oil acquisition to final product processing,examines the potential factors that may affect China's crude oil external dependence,and puts forward targeted policy recommendations.First of all,this paper analyzes the background factors of China's high crude oil external dependence from two aspects of supply and demand.Data facts show that China's crude oil self-production is relatively stable,and the crude oil external dependence depends on crude oil consumption to a greater extent.Then,focusing on the consumption of crude oil,taking the petrochemical industry process as a clue,four key indicators that may have an impact on the consumption of crude oil are extracted: the proportion of crude oil production,the operating rate of refineries,the consumption of gasoline,and the production of cracked oil ethylene.On this basis,through the establishment of regression model,the correlation between the above factors and crude oil consumption is discussed quantitatively.The results show that the proportion of crude oil production has a significant negative correlation with crude oil consumption,while refinery operating rate,gasoline consumption and cracked oil ethylene production have a significant positive correlation with crude oil consumption.Finally,based on the above analysis results,some policy suggestions are put forward to avoid the risk of crude oil external dependence.