Accident Cover Dynamic Evolution Mechanism And Countermeasures

This paper studies the underlying causes of the accident occurred problems concealed,through the safety supervision departments and construction units to establish evolutionary game model,and simulation game based on the evolution of the use of system dynamics model,according to the modeling and simulation of the accident to conceal solve the reported problems proposed effective countermeasures.Based on the recent accident statistics concealed inductive analysis,analysis of the causes and hazards concealed the accident occurred in the evolutionary game model,the first by the characteristics of construction safety supervision departments and units of the two sides summed up the strategy space and payoff matrix,then calculate the expected return and the average expected earnings of both,and then copy it to derive dynamic equations,built up a mathematical relationship between the various indicators of assumptions.By calculation and analysis of the evolutionary game model has five Nash equilibrium points,three evolutionary stable strategy,provide the basis for the next step using system dynamics simulation.According to evolutionary game come to copy dynamic equations,using the SD system dynamics simulation model was constructed using Vensim PLE simulation software to draw a diagram Accident Cover stock flow model,and various types of inventory variable flow diagram is defined,assigned.The model used evolutionary game of pure strategy,mixed strategy evolutionary game,evolutionary game strategy and dynamic random punishment model simulation of the accident concealed problems,analysis of simulation results by the probability of safety supervision department investigation and punishment of the construction unit is affected construction unit concealed probability of a major factor,in the case of a collection of different strategies to take the case,although the probability of the construction unit concealed the accident has fluctuated,but a gradual increase in safety supervision departments will investigate the accident probability of stabilizing the situation tends to be concealed.The different nature of the business enterprise,the introduction of the influence of psychological factors on business decision-makers,obtained purely economic sanctions against state-owned enterprises is not the best policy decision-makers,graphic showing greater volatility,but also their psychological intervention.Construction and system dynamics By Accident Cover evolutionary model of postsimulation is proposed targeted suggestions to form a mechanism to protect accident concealed in order after the accident,someone's unit can take the initiative to truthfully report the accident,to solve the problem of accidents concealed some ideas.