| The COVID-19 virus(HEREINAFTER referred to as COVID-19)broke out on a global scale in 2020.The mutability and rapid transmissibility of COVID-19 has led to a global dilemma.The integration of the global economy has made it impossible for any country to remain immune to the ravages of the epidemic.In order to control the spread of COVID-19,many countries have implemented a series of social distance control policy,then produce different results,and some researchers study results has been reflected strictly controls the social distance is in new long-acting vaccines haven't spread before one of the most effective disease prevention and control measures,but long-term measures such as strict sealing city,sealing countries will lead to economic recession,Social instability and so on.The long-term nature of COVID-19 determines how to minimize the epidemic and maximize national economic and social stability,which has become one of the most important issues in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19.In this paper,based on other scholars' studies on COVID-19,we propose to study the spatial-temporal evolution of urban travel volume and the transmission trend of COVID-19 from the perspective of urban travel volume,and further study the quantitative relationship between urban travel volume and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.Finally,based on the experimental results,we proposed targeted epidemic prevention and control strategies to effectively control the spread of the epidemic.The specific research work includes the following two aspects:(1)The spatio-temporal evolution trend of urb an travel volume and its relationship with the spread of COVID-19 were studied.Based on the data of urban travel volume,a Bayesian hierarchical temporal and spatial model was established to understand the relationship between the spatial distribution of urban travel volume and the spread of COVID-19.The study found that the spatial effect level of urban travel volume was positively correlated with the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases.Under the influence of urban travel volume,the higher the spatial e ffect level of COVID-19 in cities,the more severe the epidemic spread.At the same time,this has prompted us to further research.(2)Based on the travel rate obtained from urban travel volume data,we established a COVID-19 transmission dynamics model a nd discussed the quantitative relationship between urban travel rate and COVID-19 transmission.Just like molecular motility theory,we believe that in the process of moving,there is a certain probability that people will come into contact with infected p eople or infected areas,and at the same time,there is a certain probability that people will be infected.Therefore,we established a COVID-19 transmission model based on travel rate to study the transmission mechanism of COVID-19.The experimental resul ts show that our model can well predict the changes of the epidemic situation,and we find a quantitative relationship between urban travel rate and THE outbreak of COVID-19.Finally,based on the above research,we put forward targeted COVID-19 prevention and control policies.The positive correlation between the spatial distribution of urban travel and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases suggests that when the epidemic re-emerges,we should first focus on areas with a higher spatial effect rating.Mean while,based on the travel rate model of COVID-19 transmission,we found that there is a relative travel rate threshold that determines whether an outbreak will occur.This provides a quantitative measure of containment that can determine whether the government can reopen or force a secondary shutdown. |
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