| At the beginning of 2020,the World Health Organization named the respiratory infection as COVID-19(Corona Virus Disease 2019).The rapid spread of the virus,wide range,huge impact,efficient and rapid control of the spread of the virus has become the focus of worldwide attention.The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic,the prediction of the development trend of the epidemic,the exploration of the influencing factors of the infection rate and the quantitative evaluation of the epidemic prevention ability have become one of the more popular research topics this year.In this regard,this paper first took Nanchang as the study area and based on the collected geographical data,analyzed the demographic characteristics,spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and spatial agglomeration characteristics during the period from "the emergence of case zero" to "the zero clearance period"(January 23,BBB 0,March 22,2020).Secondly,on the basis of Italy and the epidemic data of Shijiazhuang city,the Logistic model based on least square method to improve fitting COVID-19 development process,to Italy on April 1 2020 solstice on April10,the cumulative number of confirmed cases,accumulative total to predict the number of cases of death,and the different time take the same measures,same time nodes take different measures on the prediction of the influence of infections.Finally,based on the multiple linear regression model to analyze the influence factors of infection,considering density of population distribution,under the condition of quantitative evaluation in our country(except in Hubei province and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in the eastern,central and western three areas of epidemic prevention capacity,and based on the influence of the infection rate index from the perspective of time,space,group three put forward feasible Suggestions to the epidemic prevention and control work.The results show that:(1)The daily newly confirmed cases and the total number of confirmed cases in Nanchang showed the following four stages: low incidence period,increasing period,slowing period and clearing period;The new cured cases showed three stages: slow increase stage,fast increase stage and stable stage.In terms of demographic characteristics,the ratio of male to female is relatively balanced,with 87.95% of confirmed cases in young and middle-aged age groups.Older people are among the most vulnerable groups.(2)The number of infected people in Nanchang was higher than that in other areas with high transportation convenience,good economic development and dense population;In terms of spatial characteristics,the confirmed cases showed a clustering phenomenon.The number and location of designated hospitals can meet the basic needs of the city.The comparison of migration index and urban travel intensity between 2020 and 2019 shows that the population flow momentum of Nanchang remains basically unchanged this year.(3)the daily new confirmed cases,accumulative total number of confirmed cases,the cumulative number of cases death rate calculated under different number of iterations,development process and fitting coefficient of fitting curve can be determined with higher accuracy can reach above 0.9,on April 1 solstice on April 10,the cumulative number of confirmed cases,accumulative total to predict the number of cases of death,the absolute error of the prediction is that less than 10%.If measures are taken one week earlier,52,866 fewer people will become infected,and if measures are taken one week later,60,001 more people will become infected.65,153 fewer people could have been infected if measures as intense as those in China had been taken;A total of 34,430 fewer people could be infected if measures between China's and existing measures were adopted.(4)There was a strong correlation between infection rate and population density,case group,immigration index,emigration index and urban travel intensity,and case group had the greatest influence.The ability of developed cities in eastern China to prevent the epidemic is superior to that of other cities.Among them,typical developed cities such as Shanghai,Beijing,Jiangsu and Guangdong take the lead in the epidemic prevention capacity. |
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