Dynamic Cooperation Control Mechanism Of Fresh Agricultural Product Supply Chain Under Double Gray Variables

Agriculture plays a significant role in the economy.Fresh agricultural products occupies an major position in the agricultural product market as a part of agriculture.The fresh agricultural product supply chain is a channel and chain for the circulation of fresh agricultural products,and its efficient and steady is of great significance to the promotion of the circulation and operation of fresh agricultural products.However,the production and circulation of most fresh agricultural products are affected by many external factors,which are beyond the control of supply chain members.This makes the both supply and demand of the agricultural product supply chain face an uncertain environment.Additionally,oversupply and shortage of agricultural products are so common in the agricultural product market that reduces the profits of the supply chain and dampens the enthusiasm of the members of the supply chain.How to reduce the impact of fluctuations and share the risks of supply chain members is an important issue in supply chain control.Through interview and investigations,it is found that the secondary fresh agricultural product supply chain composed of "company + farmers" occupies a major position in our country's agricultural product transactions.However,the contracts signed between the company and the farmers before the result often cause the company or farmers to unilaterally break the contract due to market price factors,leading to the interruption of the supply chain.In the current research on the supply chain of fresh agricultural products,great quantity information is expressed based on a specific function expression formula or a probability distribution function.However,in the actual process,the market is ever-changing,and the description of uncertain market prices and market demands with specific functional expression formula is obviously quite inconsistent with reality.When the gray system theory describes uncertain information,it uses interval gray numbers to indicate the upper and lower bounds without paying attention to the specific laws of its changes.It is logical to describe the market price and market demand in the supply chain of fresh agricultural products in this way.Based on the gray system theory and game theory,this paper introduces the two gray variables of market price and market demand in view of the actual scenarios faced in the supply chain,and explores the impact of the parameters between the supply chains on the supply chain cooperation by establishing a suitable profit model.We also analyze the game situation between the supply and demand sides,and design the supply chain to be effectively controlled before interruption.finally,the supply chain finally reaches an effective balance,so as to realize the dynamic cooperation of the fresh agricultural product supply chain and the prevention of interruption.First,there are two gray variables in the analysis of fresh agricultural product supply chain,namely market demand and market price,and the dynamic cooperation between the company and farmers.In the two gray variables,in the secondary supply chain composed of farmers and companies,due to the irreplaceability of the same product,companies often fall into a competitive relationship,and competition influence factors are used to express the competitive relationship between companies.Establish a gray game matrix between farmers and each company,analyze the impact of competition between companies on the cooperation between the company and farmers,the relationship between the establishment of company's penalty for breach of contract and incentives for farmers,and whether they cooperate or not,and The effects of different game results on the stability of the supply chain,and finally the rationality and effectiveness of the model are verified.Second,it studies the dynamic cooperation problem of the secondary supply chain composed of the company and the farmers when the two gray variables are exist,and the company conducts transactions with multiple farmers.Multiple farmers are in the same sales area and have a joint relationship.During the transaction between the company and farmers,the unity degree of farmer households is used to express the joint relationship of farmer households.When the market price and market demand are gray variables,the main factors that cause supply chain interruption in the joint environment are discussed,how to set parameters in the contract to maximize the profit of both parties in the fresh agricultural product supply chain,and propose the methods and means to prevent the interruption and make supply chain achieve optimal overall performance.Third,when the market price and market demand are gray variables at the same time,comprehensively consider the characteristics of fresh agricultural products and the dynamic characteristics of market prices and demand in an uncertain environment,and study the dynamic cooperation mechanism between the company and farmers in the process of completing a contract require multiple transactions.Establish a dynamic programming model under dual gray variables in the entire transaction process,use the gray dynamic programming method to calculate the optimal solution of the gray dynamic programming problem,and then obtain the strategies and measures benefits of both parties in the supply chain during multiple transactions.Finally,design a control strategy to achieve optimal performance of fresh agricultural products during multiple transactions when market prices and market demand are gray variables.The research results of this paper will have certain academic value for enriching and perfecting the risk control theory and method of supply chain,and expand the direction of the application of gray system theory.It has played a positive role in guiding the production of farmers and ordering fresh agricultural products of companies,increasing the income of both parties,ensuring market supply,and stabilizing prices.At the same time,it has certain practical significance in reducing blindness in production,promoting the effectiveness of circulation and improving the stability of the supply chain.