Dynamical Analysis And Calculation For The Control Of COVID-19

The epidemic dynamical model can describe the the propagation law of infectious diseases,predict the status of the disease development,and evaluate the implementation effect of various measures.It provides a theoretical basis for the decision of the prevention and control of infectious diseases,so it has been concerned by a large number of researchers at home and abroad for a long time.We establish several epidemic dynamical models based on the compartmental model to study the propagation law of COVID-19.Based on the real-time data provided by official channels,we simulate prophase propagation and development trend of COVID-19 in the northeast China is predicted.We also analyze the effects of various prevention and control measures.At the same time,the overseas epidemic is developing rapidly,and the flow channels of domestic and foreign people are not completely cut off,so we study the impact of imported cases on the control of the epidemic in China.This study has a considerable application background,which can provide reference for future epidemic prevention and control.The specific composition of this paper is as follows:In chapter 1,we give the research background and significance of infectious diseases and the epidemic dynamical model.Meanwhile,we give a brief overview of this paper.In chapter 2,we introduce two kinds of traditional epidemic models in the compartmental model and their related theoretical knowledge.At the same time,we introduce the reproduction number theory.In chapter 3,we consider the effect of isolation strategy.In this section,an epidemic dynamical model with seven compartments is constructed,and the derivation of control reproduction number is given.We use real-time number of COVID-19 patients in hospital to describe the trend of the epidemic and numerical simulation is carried out to estimate the relevant parameters of the epidemic spread.Studies have shown that long-term home isolation strategy can effectively inhibit the spread of COVID-19 and reduce the consumption of medical resources.In chapter 4,considering the impact of imported cases from abroad,we use pulse term to simulate the foreign input and pulse model to simulate the influence of epidemic prevention and control by imported cases.Numerical results show that if quarantine policy for entry inspection is fail to implement,it may lead to a second outbreak.If strict quarantine policy is adopted,although the epidemic situation can be effectively controlled,a large amount of medical resources need to be continuously invested.Finally,we summarize the work content of this paper,and determine direction in the future.