Multi-Scenarios Spatial Predictions And Conservation Planning Of Western Black Crested Gibbon(Nomascus Concolor) Habitat

As a typical indicator of the stability of subtropical forest ecosystems,the western black crested gibbon(Nomascus concolor)is critically endangered and pushed to the brink of extinction by habitat loss caused by climate change and human interference.Extensive field surveys and in situ conservation systems have been conducted in China,Laos and Vietnam,yet a large number of habitats remain unprotected.Meanwhile,future climate change and human activities will lead to changes in habitat range,which will pose great challenges to the existing static protected area boundaries.Therefore,predicting future dynamic changes of habitat range and structure based on the systematic analysis of the relationship between habitat distribution and environmental factors of the western black crested gibbon can provide potential risks warning for future habitat protection.Moreover,identifying key protected areas and exploring targeted conservation measurements to address climate change and human interference help maximize conservation benefits.In this study,Yunnan Province,northern Laos and northern Vietnam were selected as the study areas.The species distribution model Max Ent was first used to construct the relationship between the gibbons and its environment,and the preference for suitable habitat selection was quantitatively analyzed.Then climate and human activity change scenarios for different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP1,SSP2 and SSP5)under different climate models(Can ESM5,BCC-CSM2-MR,CNRM-CM6-1)in 2030,2050 and 2070 were constructed to predict the dynamic response of suitable habitats.To reduce the uncertainty of climate model simulations,the optimized results from the multi-model ensembling are further adopted as the data source for future scenarios.Finally,to provide theoretical guidance and data support for the future habitat protection planning of the western black crested gibbon,based on the principle of minimization of marginal loss,Zonation was used to carry out systematic conservation planning for suitable habitats,extract key protected areas in the future and analyze the protection gap.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Currently,the suitable habitat for the western black crested gibbon is mainly distributed in Yunnan Province and sporadic areas in Laos and Vietnam,with a relatively serious degree of fragmentation.High suitable areas show a narrow strip in the northwest-southeast direction,and moderate suitable areas are irregular flocculent and dotted distributed.Climate factors,especially the seasonality of temperature and precipitation,have more significant effect on the suitable habitat than human disturbance.(2)Comparison results of global climate models show that BCC-CSM2-MR(BC)model and CNRM-CM6-1(CN)model perform better in predicting suitable habitat of the gibbons than Can ESM5(CE)model.Compared with the CN model,BC model shows more obvious habitat stress in the future scenarios.(3)Under the future multi-model ensembling scenario,the demarcation line of‘gain-lost' of suitable habitat is approxiamately 25°N.In terms of migration trajectory,potential horizontal distribution will shrink to the northwest,while in the altitudinal dimension,there is a trend of migration to higher altitudes and upstream water systems.In terms of landscape pattern,habitat fragmentation will be mitigated while landscape connectivity will be reduced in the future.(4)China will shoulder the main responsibility of habitat protection for the western black crested gibbon.Regardless of the size and geographical distribution,the established nature reserves are still unable to fully meet the future conservation needs.The follow-up conservation management can be carried out by strengthening in situ conservation,rational planning of conservation zones and building cross-border conservation mechanisms.