| The real estate industry plays a pivotal role in China’s national economy.On the one hand,it can meet the needs of housing in the process of urbanization in China.On the other hand,due to the rich industrial chain,it greatly promotes the related investment and consumption and promotes the rapid development of domestic economy.However,because the excessive speculation in China’s real estate industry,the overall housing price in China is too high,which may cause systemic risks.To promote the healthy development of the real estate industry,the government has issued a series of regulation policies,but there are still obvious differences in the results of regulation of the real estate industry in different regions.Therefore,it is important to study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy shock in the real estate industry and discuss the transmission effect of the real estate industry on monetary policy in various regions.Financial accelerator effect refers to the fact that friction in credit markets may amplify the impact of financial market shocks on the real economy.This paper mainly studies the regional differences of the financial accelerator effect in China’s real estate industry.Firstly,the theoretical hypothesis and action mechanism of the financial accelerator are elaborated respectively,and the regulation policies of China’s real estate industry are further analyzed,and the rationality of the existence of the financial accelerator effect is demonstrated in combination with the development mode,credit characteristics and balance sheet of China’s real estate industry.Secondly,it analyzes the differences in economic level,population factors,policy support and financial market development in different regions of China,and finds that there are obvious regional differences in the financial accelerator effect of China’s real estate industry.Then,according to the financial accelerator mechanism,relevant indicators of China’s macro monetary policy,net assets of the real estate industry,credit scale of the real estate industry,and output level of the real estate industry are selected to simplify the complexity,and the transmission mechanism of the financial accelerator in the real estate industry is constructed and analyzed in two parts.The first part choose between January1999 and December 2019,macro monetary policy and the related parameters of the real estate industry of the country’s monthly data,build the structure of vector autoregressive(SVAR)model and an argument,compared with the vector autoregressive(VAR)model,SVAR model not only can join the limited economic significance,also consider the current relationship between variables,makes the analysis more logical.The second part has chosen between January 1999 and December 2018,macro monetary policy and the provincial real estate industry related indicators monthly data,build the whole domain vector autoregressive(GVAR)model and analysis,compared with the SVAR model,GVAR model regions through weighting matrix can be connected into a whole,to consider the whole domain variables on regional impact in the system,more in line with the reality of our country’s regional economy highly interconnected.Firstly,we verified the existence of the financial accelerator transmission mechanism of "Monetary policy shock→Net asset level of real estate enterprises→Credit scale of real estate industry→Output level of real estate industry" in China’s real estate industry through the Granger causality test of the SVAR model.Secondly,the orthogonal impulse response results of the SVAR model also prove that the monetary policy impact can be transmitted and amplified through the balance sheet approach of China’s real estate industry,so there is an obvious financial accelerator effect in the real estate industry.Thirdly,according to the cumulative impulse response results,we calculate that the overall financial accelerator effect of China’s real estate industry during this period is about 0.033%,so the positive change of monetary policy by one unit will eventually increase the output of the real estate industry by about 0.033% through the balance sheet approach.Fourthly,we verify the weak exogeneity of China’s monetary policy on the real estate industry through the weak exogeneity test.The generalized impulse response results show that there are obvious differences in the financial accelerator effect of real estate industry in different regions of China.The financial accelerator effect of the real estate industry in eastern China is obviously higher than that in other regions,and the financial accelerator effect of the real estate industry in western China is slightly higher than that in midland China.Finally,according to the theoretical analysis and empirical results,this paper puts forward several targeted countermeasures and suggestions to realize the healthy and stable operation of the economy in view of the obvious financial accelerator effect and the obvious regional differences in the financial accelerator effect of the real estate industry in China. |
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