| In recent years,with the high rise of global economic uncertainty and the complex and changeable economic situation at home and abroad,the research on monetary policy has begun to show a trend of progressive and horizontal expansion,among which monetary policy innovation has become a hot research direction of academic attention.In the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics,the modern central banking system and the modern monetary policy framework are the foundation and institutional guarantee.Instead,it innovates the whole chain in terms of monetary policy tools,monetary policy objectives,monetary policy transmission and even monetary policy concepts.Therefore,this paper follows the research structure of general theory and sub-theory,focuses on the innovation of China’s monetary policy,comprehensively studies and analyzes its theoretical logic and specific practical measures,and conducts empirical research on hot issues of monetary policy innovation under modern central banking system,such as LPR reform,new intermediary target,interest rate corridor mechanism,expectations management.To explore the influence mechanism of these innovative measures on the effect of monetary policy regulation,so as to provide theoretical reference and policy enlightenment for China to build a modern monetary policy system in the new era and improve the forward-looking,targeted and effective monetary policy regulation.The main work and basic ideas of this paper are as follows:First of all,this paper starts from the basic framework of China’s monetary policy regulation in the general section,takes monetary policy innovation as the main line,systematically sorts out some typical discrete facts that are both internal and independent,extracts the theoretical logic,and discusses the future reform direction.It is found that the monetary policy innovation of China’s central bank is not limited to the theoretical framework of western economics.However,due to the characteristics of economic and financial development stage,historical problems and institutional constraints,it is still necessary to gradually build a modern monetary policy framework with Chinese characteristics with effective policy tools,clear policy objectives and smooth policy transmission,centering on interest rate liberalization reform and smooth monetary policy transmission channels.Secondly,this paper uses DSGE simulation and TVP-VAR model to test the change of monetary policy efficiency in the process of interest rate liberalization,and analyzes the impact of LPR reform on the effectiveness of monetary policy regulation.The results show that the promotion of market-oriented measures such as LPR reform can significantly improve the transmission efficiency and effectiveness of monetary policy.Improving the degree of interest rate liberalization can strengthen the ability of monetary policy to smooth economic fluctuations,but it may weaken the effect of fiscal policy;After considering the phased characteristic factors contained in the actual data,we find that the effectiveness of monetary policy in transmitting to the real economy has weakened to a certain extent,and the interest rate liberalization reform should be further promoted in the future.Thirdly,this paper systematically sorts out the construction background,mechanism of action and main advantages of the scale of social financing intermediary.Based on this,we can identify the applicability and control efficiency of the scale of social financing in China as the intermediary target of monetary policy.The results show that the practice of monetary policy regulation in China has a strong inertia and pays more attention to the response to inflation changes;Compared with the broad money supply and nominal interest rate,the scale of social financing has a higher correlation with the actual economic target.Compared with the broad money supply and nominal interest rate,the monetary policy with the scale of social financing as the intermediary target is the dominant choice to deal with the economic downturn and manage the real economic crisis.Then,using the trial operation data of the interest rate corridor from 2007 to 2023 as the research sample,this paper empirically tests the effectiveness and preference of the central bank’s monetary policy regulation before and after the operation of the interest rate corridor,and gives the optimal strategy of balancing the real cost and the cost of interest rate fluctuation by the policy simulation method.The results show that: first,after the implementation of the implicit interest rate corridor,the central bank’s policy preference has shifted from unilateral inflation control to both inflation and output control.Second,compared with the regulation results of pegging different market benchmark interest rates,the social welfare cost generated by pegging DR007 is less than that generated by pegging Shibor,that is,DR007 can play a better market benchmark.Thirdly,from the perspective of equal-weight regulation,output regulation will produce a large loss of total social welfare,while from the perspective of dynamic weight,the central bank does not have an absolute dominant choice.Finally,this paper uses the big data text analysis method to construct the central bank communication index and economic uncertainty index,taking the major crisis events as the research object,using MF-VAR and FA-TVP-VAR models to empirically study the policy feedback and policy effect of China’s central bank communication on economic uncertainty.The results show that when major crisis events occur,China’s central bank can timely provide policy feedback on the impact of economic uncertainty caused by central bank communication,and the expectation management effect of central bank communication is significant,which can effectively maintain the stability of financial market.For the impact of economic uncertainty caused by different types of major crisis events,the degree of policy feedback and expected management effect of central bank communication are different.Looking ahead,as the domestic and international economic environment has undergone fundamental changes,and problems such as economic downturn,structural transformation,weakening expectations,real estate adjustment,debt pressure and exchange rate depreciation need to be solved urgently,monetary policy,as one of the basic macro-control policies,should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing growth,adjusting structure,stabilizing expectations and guarding against risks.We will build a modern central banking system through continuous innovation,help build a modern financial system and a modern economic system with Chinese characteristics,and lay a solid foundation for becoming a financial powerhouse. |
