A Study On The Spillover Effect Of Monetary Policy In Developed Countries On China’s Economy

With the rapid development and continuous advancement of economic globalization,the links between countries in the world are becoming more and more closely.The political,economic and other fields between countries are also interdependent and interdependent,and the policies of other countries are inevitably influenced by the policies of other countries.How to formulate reasonable economic policies to promote economic growth in the context of global integration has become the main problem faced by the governments of various countries.China is the largest trading country in the world,and any economic policy fluctuation in any important country or region may affect our country’s economy.The research in this paper is based on the monetary policy spillover effect as the center based on the comparative analysis of the spillover effects of monetary policy in four different countries on China’s economy from the international perspective,this will help our country to make a different response to the monetary policy in different countries in order to maintain and realize the goal of monetary policy.In this paper,we established the DSGE model with micro foundation,and then set up SVAR model,analyzes the spillover effects of monetary policy on interest rate as the proxy variable of the monetary policy in developed countries on China’s economy by using 2000-2016 years of data,the results show that when the United States implemented expansionary monetary policy,on China’s import and export volume,price level and the level of output have positive spillover effects on interest rates have negative spillover effects.When the Japanese interest rate rises,there is a positive spillover effect on the output and the total import and export of our country’s output and interest rate,and there is a negative spillover effect on the price level.The rise of Korean interest rate has a significant positive impact on China’s output,import and export volume and interest rate,while the rise of Korean interest rate has no effect on China’s price level.When the interest rate level of the European Union increases,it also has a positive impact on China’s interest rate,price level and total import and export volume,but it has no significant impact on China’s output.Through the test of transmission channels,the article found that the monetary policy of the European and American countries and Japan and South Korea have a greater impact on our economy through the interest rate channels.In the long run,the rise of interest rates in Europe,America,Japan and South Korea has a positive impact on China’s interest rate,but has little effect on China’s price level.Finally,the relevant policy suggestions are put forward through the analysis of the conclusion of the article:First of all,we should strengthen the monitoring of the flow of large cross-border capital,monitor the inflow and outflow of our capital,especially the large capital flow in the capital market.Secondly,the banking regulatory authorities should use the market control means to control the banks’ income,so that the abnormal behavior of the large cross-border capital has to be realized to our country’s economy.In the end,we should improve the structure and level of China’s product market,make the domestic trade market more diversified,and weaken the degree of excessive dependence on import and export of our country’s economy.