Industrial Analysis And Forecast Of China’s Economic Convergence

By 2019,China has undergone 40 years of reform and opening-up,with a GDP of nearly 100 trillion yuan and a GDP growth rate of 6.1% for the whole year.At the same time,China’s economic aggregate in the international rankings from less than the top10 before 1978,to the world’s second stable.However,the regional development gap in China continues to widen with the rapid economic growth,which will have a negative impact on the stability and prosperity of China’s economy.In recent years,China’s economic growth has been the focus of the majority of scholars,among which the development of various industries is of great significance to economic growth.Due to government policies,historical reasons and many other factors,the development trend of each industry in different stages is different,so that the development of the industry will have a positive or negative impact on economic growth.Firstly,the convergence model is constructed on the basis of the economic growth convergence theory,and then the data from 1978 to 2018 are used to calculate the evolution trajectory of China’s regional economic development and analyze its industrial decomposition,so as to analyze the dynamic changes of the contribution of three industries and their interaction effects to the convergence of economic growth and explore the development of each industry.The results show that: first,although the overall trend of China’s economic development shows-convergence,there are significant differences in-convergence of the three industries.Second,the leading industries that cause the difference in economic development show dynamic changes in the time dimension.Third,the interaction effect between the three industries plays an important role in the contribution rate of economic development differences,and its change trajectory all presents an inverted "U" shape.Finally,according to the time sequence data to construct convergence coefficient of ARIMA model to our country and the convergence of three industrial economic development to explore the differences in economic development in our country and the difference is the future trend of the industrial development,at the same time provide a reference for future research on industry development as well as narrowing the difference of regional economy and improving the quality of China’s economic development to provide beneficial exploration.The empirical results show that the ARIMA model is used to predict the-convergence of China’s economic development and the three industrial development in the short term.Primary industry-convergence will continue to rise,that is,the economic development of the primary industry in our country will continue to exist and expand.Although the change of-convergence in the secondary industry fluctuates,the overall trend is downward.The trend of-convergence in the tertiary industry is less clear.