Analysis Of Comprehensive Benefit In Transnational Power Grid Construction Project By System Dynamics

The impact of greenhouse effect on global environment and climate has attracted worldwide attention,and energy conservation and emission reduction have become the focus of attention of the international community.The global energy internet,which is dominated by clean energy,centered on electricity and optimized allocation of global resources,is one of the effective international cooperation modes to mitigate climate change.In the context of "one belt and one road" and the interconnection of Asian energy sources,the transnational power grid project has been developing vigorously and giving full play to its advantages in promoting regional economic development,reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting the development of clean energy.Under the new situation,the benefit research of transnational networking projects is faced with the task of improving the accuracy of benefit measurement and expanding the scope of benefit research.Accurately quantifying and predicting the benefits of transnational power grid construction projects is not only the decision-making basis for the feasibility study of transnational power grid projects,but also the reference standard for transnational power grid projects to adjust management strategies and measure the operation status of the projects.In order to realize the dynamic evaluation of transnational networking projects,obtain continuous comprehensive benefit information and identify and quantify the complex relationship between benefits,this paper builds a comprehensive evaluation model of system dynamics based on the theory of system dynamics and comprehensive evaluation.In this paper,11 comprehensive benefit indicators including economic,social and environmental benefit dimensions are selected by Delphi technology grey relational analysis according to the principle of evaluation index selection.The application of improved order relation method and Gini coefficient weighting covers subjective and objective information of weights,and the combination of subjective and objective weights is realized based on the comprehensive weighting method of game theory.On the basis of the establishment of comprehensive benefit evaluation index system,this paper deeply explores the causal feedback relationship between benefit-related variables,and finally establishes the variable equation to realize the linkage of benefits.In order to evaluate the practicability and accuracy of the model,this paper chooses a specific example of transnational power grid project to test.The results show that the model error is acceptable and the model is reliable.In order to quantify the difference of benefits of transnational power grid construction projects under different policy changes and economic development conditions,this paper conducts scenario analysis according to 27 scenarios consisting of different clean energy development,technological progress and GDP growth settings.Taking China-X power transmission and transformation project as an example,this paper obtains the comprehensive benefit evaluation results under different scenarios and the benefit information of each year through the system dynamics evaluation model.The results show that the comprehensive benefits of power transmission and transformation projects in China and the country of X are the highest in the context of high clean energy development-technological progress-GDP growth.At the same GDP growth rate,the driving force of clean energy development on the growth of comprehensive benefits is higher than that of technological progress.In the case of low GDP growth rate,high clean energy development is a wise way to improve comprehensive benefits.The research results of this subject show that the system dynamics evaluation model constructed in this paper can provide a valuable and flexible framework for comprehensive benefit analysis of projects under dynamic environment.By establishing a more comprehensive and interdependent comprehensive benefit model of the project,the practice and knowledge level of the comprehensive benefit prediction of the project are improved.Quantifying the supply shortage of transnational transmission can provide reference for upgrading and new construction of follow-up projects.