Research On Typhoon Disaster Risk Assessment Model Based On Information Diffusion And Cloud Model

Typhoon disaster is one of the major natural disasters in the world,and its uncertain factors are the key to the risk,so the fuzziness and randomness of typhoon disasters can not be ignored in risk assessment.In order to evaluate the risk of typhoon disaster more scientifically,this paper adopts the information diffusion method of fuzzy information optimization technology,and introduces the cloud model with comprehensive consideration of randomness and fuzziness.A typhoon disaster risk assessment model is constructed by coupling the three-dimensional information diffusion method with stochastic process,cloud model and risk matrix,cloud information diffusion and the three-dimensional information diffusion method,and typhoons landing in three provinces of South China is taken as a case study.Specific work has been done in the following aspects:(1)A typhoon disaster loss risk estimation model is constructed based on three-dimensional information diffusion and stochastic process method.Firstly,the fuzzy approximate reasoning estimation of typhoon disaster loss is carried out by using three-dimensional normal information diffusion method,the random process of describing typhoon disaster loss is improved,and the annual risk of typhoon disaster loss and the risk of different periods and months are estimated.40 typhoons that landed in South China from 1992 to 2017 were taken as a case study.The results show that the three-dimensional information diffusion model constructed in this paper is more consistent with the reality than the two-dimensional information diffusion result,the annual risk of typhoon disaster loss in South China is slightly higher than that calculated by simple random process,and the typhoon disaster risk estimation in different periods and months provides some theoretical reference for typhoon disaster emergency management and disaster prevention and reduction.(2)Considering the uncertainty problems such as fuzziness and randomness of typhoon disasters,the theory of cloud model is introduced.Using the improved analytic hierarchy process(GAHP)and TOPSIS method to determine the index weight,optimizing the weight based on the minimum identification information principle,the disaster risk index and vulnerability index of disaster-bearing body are calculated by fuzzy mathematics method,and then based on the cloud model and risk matrix to build a typhoon disaster risk assessment model.Taking 50 typhoon samples landing in South China from 1984 to 2016 as cases,the comprehensive typhoon grade evaluation is compared with the cloud model-weight distribution and fuzzy mathematics model.The results show that the typhoon disaster grade assessment model constructed in this paper is more in line with the reality.(3)Combining the advantages of cloud model and information diffusion,a two-dimensional cloud information diffusion model is constructed to estimate the probability distribution of typhoon disaster,its conditional distribution series is calculated,and then the typhoon disaster loss is estimated by three-dimensional information diffusion method.finally,the risk of the disaster loss distribution is synthesized.Taking 29 typhoons landing in South China from 2000 to 2017 as cases,the loss risk of typhoon disaster under different conditions are obtained,which provides a theoretical basis for typhoon disaster risk management.In addition,the above model is extended,and the dynamic risk analysis of typhoon disaster in South China is carried out based on the two-dimensional information diffusion probability distribution model and the three-dimensional information diffusion loss estimation model.