Research On Comprehensive Vulnerability Assessment And Economic Loss Prediction Of Urban Earthquake

As a huge disaster-bearing body,cities have increasingly become the center and focus of disaster prevention and mitigation in the international community.In recent years,the spatial and population agglomeration effects of cities in our country have become more obvious,and the disaster pressures faced by cities have become more prominent,so the vulnerability of cities has become more prominent.The diversity and frequent occurrence of urban disasters and the seriousness of the various damages and losses caused by them have already posed a major threat to the social and economic development of cities.The earthquake is the most harmful and the most serious economic loss among various types of urban disasters.Once it happens,the consequences will be unbearable.The correct evaluation and scientific management of urban disaster-bearing conditions have become the best means to achieve urban disaster prevention and mitigation.At present,the research results on urban earthquake vulnerability assessment and economic loss prediction are mainly concentrated on a certain type of disaster-bearing body in the urban system.Assessment and direct economic loss prediction.Therefore,based on the city as a scale,a comprehensive evaluation index system for seismic vulnerability of the urban system is constructed to study the comprehensive vulnerability of urban earthquakes and the prediction of economic losses.For scientific formulation Disaster prevention and mitigation planning and rational allocation of resource allocation have important scientific practical value and practical significance.Based on the existing research,this paper takes the entire urban system as the research object,evaluates the comprehensive vulnerability of the city to earthquakes and conducts research on the prediction of economic losses.The main contents include the following aspects:First of all,taking the urban disaster-bearing body as the main body of study,by analyzing the characteristics of urban earthquake disasters and combining the concept of vulnerability,the concept of comprehensive vulnerability of urban earthquakes is summarized;for the impact of multiple factors in the comprehensive vulnerability assessment of urban earthquake disasters Problem,combined with the complex internal characteristics of the urban system,based on the pressure-state-response model,the city's earthquake disaster comprehensive vulnerability was constructed from 7 aspects: natural factors,human factors,lifeline systems,social status,economic status,engineering earthquake resistance,and recovery capacity.Damage index system.Secondly,through the comparison and analysis of comprehensive evaluation methods,combined with the urban earthquake comprehensive vulnerability assessment index system established in this paper,an urban earthquake disaster comprehensive vulnerability assessment model that can achieve objective weighting and objective judgment is adopted,using Accelerating genetic algorithm to seek the best projection direction of the projection pursuit evaluation model,combining the evaluation index value to determine the projection feature index value of the evaluation sample,using the natural segmentation method to establish an evaluation set,and determining the vulnerability of urban earthquake disasters based on the projection value and evaluation set grade.Once again,by analyzing and summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of the existing economic loss assessment methods for urban earthquake disasters,as well as the scope of application,the macro vulnerability assessment model suitable for high-intensity areas is used to predict the direct economic loss of urban earthquakes.Based on the direct economic loss,consider The availability of data,the empirical coefficient method is used to predict the indirect economic loss of urban earthquakes.The Arc GIS software is used to express the coupling relationship between the urban seismic vulnerability and economic loss,and by analyzing its spatial structure,the main measures for urban earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation are proposed.Finally,taking 12 prefecture-level cities in Gansu Province as examples,the comprehensive earthquake vulnerability assessment model and economic loss prediction model established in this paper were used for research.The results show that: the overall economic loss in areas with high urban earthquake comprehensive vulnerability More serious,the research results are consistent with the actual situation,verifying the feasibility and practicability of the model constructed in this article.The research results can provide reference for earthquake prevention management of other cities,help to improve the scientific and effective urban earthquake prevention planning,improve the allocation efficiency of urban earthquake prevention resources,and enhance the comprehensive earthquake prevention ability of cities.