The Impact Of Extreme Weather Events Adaptation On Output

Over the past century,the global climate has undergone tremendous changes with warming as its main feature.It is expected that by 2100,the global average temperature will rise by 3.5-5?,and the probability of extreme climate will increase(IPCC,2013).The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report pointed out that climate change exacerbates existing climate risks,and frequent extreme weather events such as high temperatures,droughts and floods will have a series of ecological and socio-economic consequences.Facing the risk of uncertainty brought by extreme weather events to agriculture,farmers should adopt effective climate change adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse impact of extreme weather events on agriculture.In the process of farmers' adaptation to extreme weather events,which factors hinder farmers' effective adaptation,and whether these adaptation measures can mitigate the adverse impact of extreme weather events on agricultural output?The evidence provided by domestic research is not sufficient,and there are few studies to quantify the impact of farmers' extreme weather events adaptive behavior on output.Based on the survey data,Meteorological Observatory data,China Statistical Yearbook data and existing research results,this paper firstly uses linear trend estimation to analyze the climate change trends of the whole country and Heilongjiang,Sichuan and Zhejiang provinces.Then according to the actual situation,the risk of China's agricultural production caused by extreme weather disasters from 1986 to 2017 is calculated.Logistic model is used to analyze the factors affecting farmers' cognition of climate change and adaptive behavior.Finally,the endogenous switching regression model is used to analyze the effects and effects of rice farmers on extreme weather events adaptation measures.Further,according to the actual situation,the adaptation measures are divided into preventive measures and remedial measures.The production effects of different adaptation measures are estimated by multinomial endogenous switching regression model.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The annual average temperature of the whole country shows a significant fluctuating upward trend,with an average increase of 0.431? every 10 years.The average temperatures in the growing seasons of Heilongjiang,Sichuan and Zhejiang provinces all showed a clear upward trend,but the range of temperature rise varies from province to province.According to the increase range from large to small,they are ranked as:Sichuan,Zhejiang,Heilongjiang.The average temperature rise ranges of each province during the growth period are 0.663?,0.447? and 0.377?,respectively.However,the upward trend of precipitation in the whole country and three provinces is not obvious,but it is characterized by fluctuations over time.(2)During 1986-2017,nearly 30%of the crops planted in China were affected by extreme climate events every year and half of the affected area would result in crop yield reduction of at least 30%.The occurrence of extreme climate disasters in China has brought great harm to agricultural production.Drought,flood and wind disasters are the three extreme climate disasters that have the greatest impact on crop production.The disaster rates of drought,flood and wind disasters were 14.57%,7.02%and 2.82%,respectively,and the hazard rates were 7.43%,3.82%and 1.44%respectively.(3)Based on Logistic model,gender,age,and educational level have a significant impact on farmers' cognition of climate change.Women are more sensitive to climate change during agricultural production.Age has a significant negative impact on farmers'cognition of climate change.Higher education levels make farmers more aware of climate change.The cognition of climate change,gender,household heads having been village cadres,planting scale and disaster experience have significant impact on farmers'adaptive behavior choice.Farmers who are aware of climate change tend to adopt adaptive measures.Women who recognize climate change tend to adopt extreme weather events adaptive behavior.The larger the planting scale,the more inclined farmers are to take adaptive measures.Farmers who have experienced disasters have a higher awareness of risk prevention and will adopt adaptive measures based on past experience to avoid the uncertainty caused by extreme weather events.(4)Based on endogenous switching regression model,seed input,household heads being women,household heads having been village cadres,participated in cooperatives,and disaster experiences have a positive impact on farmers' extreme weather events adaptation decision-making.It shows that women are more sensitive to climate change and understand the importance of adaptation measures.The experience of household heads as village cadres promote farmers to make adaptive decisions.Participating in cooperatives can improve the technology and information for farmers and provide a feasible path for farmers to make adaptive decisions.Disaster experience enhances farmers' awareness of risk prevention and promotes farmers to adopt adaptive measures to avoid the risks brought by extreme climate disasters to agricultural production.The average treatment effect of the output of farmers who adopt adaptive behavior and those who do not adopt adaptive behavior is significant at the level of 1%.Based on the counterfactual hypothesis,if the farmers adopting extreme weather events adaptive behaviors do not adopt corresponding adaptive behaviors,the output per hectare of rice will fall by 910.586 kg(10.92%).If farmers who do not adopt extreme weather events adaptive behavior adopt corresponding adaptive behaviors,the output per hectare will increase by 198.105 kg(2.50%).It shows that farmers' extreme weather events adaptive decision-making can increase agricultural output.(5)Adaptation measures are divided into two categories:preventive measures and remedial measures,and the production effects of different adaptation measures are estimated.The average treatment effect of farmer households taking preventive measures to adapt to extreme weather events is significant at the 1%level.Considering the counterfactual hypothesis,if farmers who take precautions against adaptation before climate change disasters fail to take corresponding adaptive behavior,the output per hectare of rice will decrease by 821.675 kg(9.92%).If farmers who fail to take adaptive measures to prevent adaptive changes before the extreme weather events take appropriate adaptive behavior,the output per hectare of rice will increase by 122.969 kg(1.54%).Generally speaking,farmers can increase agricultural output by taking precautionary adaptive behavior before disasters.The average treatment effect of the output of farmers who adopt remedial measures and those who do not take remedial measures are significant at the level of 1%.Considering the counterfactual hypothesis,if farmers who adopt remedial adaptive behavior after climate change disaster fail to adopt corresponding adaptive behavior,and the rice output per hectare will decrease by 757.613 kg(9.05%).When farmers who did not take remedial adaptive behavior after climate change disasters adopt corresponding adaptive behaviors,the rice output per hectare will increase by 100.349 kg(1.25%).Generally speaking,farmers can increase agricultural output by taking remedial adaptive behavior after disasters.