Long Series Analysis Of Annual Precipitation In Shandong Province And The Impact Of Changing Environment On Water Resources Vulnerability

In recent years,climate change and human activities have had a profound impact on the global hydrological and water resources system.At present,water science research has paid more attention to the evolution law of water resources under the influence of climate change and human activities.The ecological environment background of Shandong Province is fragile,and the water resources and water security problems are serious.However,there are relatively few researches on the impact of future changing environment on water resources system in Shandong Province.In order to understand the current situation and the vulnerability of water resources system under different scenarios in the future,and to provide reference for the economic and social development and water resources management in the new era,it is necessary to carry out the research on the impact of changing environment on the vulnerability of water resources system.Based on the analysis of the long series of precipitation data,this paper evaluates the vulnerability of water resources system in Shandong Province by predicting the change characteristics of water resources system under the change scenarios of climate,underlying surface and human activities,and puts forward the adaptive guarantee countermeasures.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)The long-term series annual precipitation data of about 100 years in Shandong Province are analyzed.It is found that the long-term series annual precipitation in Shandong Province has an upward trend under the current situation,and the annual precipitation series has periods of about 3,10,56 and 80 years.(2)Three evaluation models are used to analyze the vulnerability of water resources system in Shandong Province under the current situation.It is found that the vulnerability of water resources is largely affected by precipitation and water resources quantity,followed by economic development and water use efficiency.Under the current situation,the water resource vulnerability of Shandong Province and its representative cities has a slight upward trend,and the overall change trend is similar.The water resource fragility of all regions reached the low point in 2002.Before 2013,the vulnerability assessment results of areas with high precipitation were better,while those of areas with water shortage were worse.(3)set a different future climate,underlying surface and human activities,the objective evaluation model is used to analyze the future of vulnerability of water resources under different situation in shandong province,the scene is found in the future(flat)water in low quality development to the vulnerability index(dry)water in high quality development,show that under the level of development in the future,The influence of economic and social development on water resources system will increase.The change of water resource system vulnerability index under the same development quality scenario in water shortage region and different climate scenarios in dry year indicates that increasing precipitation is beneficial to the stability of water resource system under the condition of water shortage.Under the future scenario,the water resources system of Linyi City is the most stable in the whole province and the other four cities.The vulnerability of water resources system in the whole province and all cities has been improved,especially in Heze,which indicates that with the development of economy and the improvement of water use efficiency,the water resources system will be more stable.(4)On the basis of the above research,this paper also puts forward the measures to ensure the stability of water resources under the changing environment in the future,in order to further improve the carrying capacity of water resources system under the changing environment.Through the study on the impact of changing environment on water resource system vulnerability,this paper understands the current situation and future water resource system vulnerability under different scenarios.The research results are of great significance to the economic and social development and water resource management in the new era.