A Research On Value Evaluation Of Urban Gas Pipeline Network Construction From The Perspective Of Real Options

The city gas pipeline network project is closely related to the daily lives of residents.In recent years,with the continuous progress of government’s energy structure reform,the development of gas industry has also developed faster and better.However,the project has high uncertainty,and the large investment scale and long construction period have prompted the companies of natural gas to make a accurately assessment of the value of the project before the investment decision-making process.The traditional method of investment decision-making can’t measure the uncertain factors that the project faces in the future and the value of management flexibility caused by investors such as delays and expansions.And the Real options can better solve the above problems.But the uncertain factors are also vague,which will cause some errors in the value of the model weight parameters in the physical period.In view of this,this thesis first introduced the related theories of real options,pointed out the advantages and the current application problems of real options theory.Then,the option analysis of the city gas pipeline network project was carried out,and the application framework of the real option method in the value evaluation of the city gas pipeline network project was constructed.On this basis,the real option model of the city gas pipeline network project was established.Using the theoretical knowledge of fuzzy mathematics to deduce the corresponding fuzzy real option model.Finally,combining the specific cases,the validity of the real option method in the value evaluation of urban gas pipeline network projects is verified.The research conclusions were as follows:(1)Analyzed the real option characteristics of the city gas pipeline network project.And constructed an investment analysis framework for the city gas pipeline network project.(2)Used the system dynamics method to analyze the various factors that affect the value of urban gas pipeline network projects.Based on this,real option method is used to establish a model for evaluating the value of urban gas pipeline network projects,and an empirical analysis is carried out with specific cases.(3)Deduced the fuzzy B-S model and fuzzy Binomial tree model based on the fuzzy mathematics related theory.Compared with the traditional way,the parameters in the model are selected in an interval rather than a fixed value.This solves the problem that it is difficult to estimate the ambiguity of the uncertain factors faced by the urban gas pipeline network project.An empirical analysis is also performed for the actual urban gas pipeline network project.