Potential Distribution Of Endemic Plants In Arid Valley Of Jinsha River And Primary Study On Priority Area

Due to the complex geographical environment and dry climate,the dry valley of Jinsha River is a refuge for many endemic plants.These endemic plants play an important role in the ecological environment and biodiversity due to the function of water and soil conservation,edible or ornamental value.However,the narrow distribution area of these previous study in dry valley of Jinsha river only focused on one endemic species and their physiological and biochemical.Plants and the increased human activities threaten them,they need to be protected urgently.In order to investigate the distribution,provide information for priority reserve,we used the maximum entropy model(Max Ent)to predict the distribution of 12 endemic plants under present(1970-2000)and future(2061-2080)climate conditions.In addition,the Marx model was used to identify priority areas for 12 species of endemic plants based on the Human Footprint data combined with the highest potential distribution area in the current climate.The results showed that:(1)At present,12 endemic plants are mainly distributed in area of Diqing Prefecture and Lijiang City,such as Deqin County,Hutiaoxia Town,Yulong County and Heqing County.(2)The main factors affecting the distribution of endemic plants are isothermality(bio3),temperature annual range(bio7),precipitation of driest month(Bio14),precipitation seasonality(Bio15),precipitation of driest quarter(Bio17),and slope.(3)The potential distribution of endemic plants will respond differently to future climate changes: 2/3of the endemic plants will expand in the future climate,two species will contract,and two species are stable.The potential distribution of eight species migrated northward,two species migrated eastward,and the potential distribution showed a trend of migration to high latitude regions.(4)The priority area is 19690 km2,which mainly includes the dry valley of the Jinsha River and its tributaries in Diqing Prefecture,Lijiang City,Dali Prefecture,Ganzi Prefecture,Liangshan Prefecture and Panzhihua City.