Analysis Of Runoff Changes And Influencing Factors In Bosten Lake Basin

Runoff is an important factor affecting regional water cycle and water balance.Quantitative analysis of runoff changes in the Bosten Lake Basin,Provide a reasonable basis for reasonable optimal allocation of local water resources.This paper selects Bosten Lake Basin Kaidu river(Dshankou Hydrological Station ? yanqi Hydrological Station)? Huangshuigou(Huangshuigou Hydrological Station)?Qingshui river(Krguti Hydrological Station)from 1970 to 2018 and Meteorological Data,analysis using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,R / S analysis,analysis of meteorological variation hydrological elements;Then analyzed the factors that affect the change of runoff;Finally use the improved Budyko equilibrium equation of water and heat combined with elastic coefficient method to quantitatively separate the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff change.The main findings are as follows:(1)Hydrological changes of meteorological elements: The runoff of the three rivers in the Bosten Lake Basin increased from 1970 to 2018;Kaidu river has the largest runoff and Qingshui river has the smallest runoff;Basin runoff is highest in summer and lowest in winter;The future runoff change trend of the Bosten Lake Basin is the same as the historical change trend;The runoff at the four stations changed abruptly from 1986 to 1990,and the runoff turned to more periods.From 1970 to 2018,the precipitation showed an increasing trend,with the highest precipitation at Baluntai and the lowest precipitation at Hejing Station;The future trend of precipitation in the river basin is the same as the historical trend,and the future precipitation will continue to increase;the four precipitation points of the four weather stations are between 1972 and 1986.The average temperature of the Bosten Lake Basin increased from 1970 to 2018,and the upward trend was significant.In the future,the average temperature of the lake basin will continue to increase,which is the same as the historical trend;the time points of the sudden changes in the average temperature of the four weather stations are between 1989 and 1996.Precipitation and temperature are gradually increasing.(2)Influencing factors of runoff change: The change trend of precipitation anomaly percentage and runoff anomaly percentage is generally consistent.The correlation between precipitation and runoff is highest in summer and lowest in winter.The change trend of average temperature anomaly percentage and runoff percentage is not consistent.Lowest;the effect of average temperature on runoff at Dashankou Hydrological Station and Huangshuigou Hydrological Station is greater than the effect of precipitation on runoff.The population and arable land area change trend is opposite to the runoff change trend.The increase of population and arable land area leads to the decrease of runoff.The construction of water conservancy projects in the study area has a positive impact on runoff.Waste of resources.(3)Climate change and human activity contribution rate: The underlying surface parameter of the Bosten Lake Basin shows an increasing trend with time;the underlying surface parameters are the largest in spring and the smallest in winter.The coefficient of elasticity of runoff for precipitation P is positive,and the coefficient of elasticity for potential evapotranspiration E0 and underlying surface parameter is negative.As precipitation increases,runoff also increases,and potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface parameters increase.Runoff decreases;runoff has the greatest elastic coefficient for underlying surface parameters and the lowest elastic coefficient for potential evapotranspiration.The contribution rate of climate change to runoff change in the Bosten Lake Basin(Kaidu River,Huangshuigou,Qingshui River)is greater than that of human activities.