The Impact Of Climate And Human Acttivies On The Inflowing Water Of The Bosten Lake

With increasing population and the rapid development of social economy, theshortage of water resources and serious water pollution have become a restrictivefactor for the sustainable development of our country, especially for the western aridzone in China, due to the lack ofwater, the reasonable development and utilization ofwater resources is very important to the development of the region.Bosten Lake is the largest inland freshwater lake of China.and it is not only asource of agriculture and industry as well as the main source of people’s living waterof Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang and hold concurrently at the sametime to the Tarim River downstream of the important tasks of emergency water. Inrecent years, the global climate change and regional water and soil resources, theseunder the influence of the excessive development of river basin water environmentproblems are increasingly prominent. Appeared many problems,such as increasedsalinity of water quality, water pollution, wetland environmental deterioration,biodiversity decrease, water shortage, soil salinization serious problems, and so on.In view of this, based on the characters in climate change and human activitieson the water volume as the research content, the influence of the first combinationKaiDouHe two weather stations in50years statistical data of meteorological elementsand middle Tashan station runoff, using the statistical correlation analysis, trendanalysis and related theory and method of interannual climate and runoff, year, andseasonal variation rule and linear trend. Then using mutation analysis method,determines the amount of characters into the lake of mutations, using BP neuralnetwork model for reducing the natural into the amount of water under the influenceof human activity. Finally research quantitative analysis of the climate change and theimpact of human activities on the amount of water into the lake.This article’s research helps from the perspective of the whole basin, as well asthe different time scales, comprehensive understanding in the basin climate change law and influence on basin runoff, for the characters of river basin water resourcesreasonable development and utilization, provide a scientific reference optimalregulation of water resource utilization, at the same time for the protection of theecological environment and the sustainable development of social and economicsignificance.