Research On The Influencing Factors Of The Volume Of New Commercial Housing In Wuhan

Since the commercialization of housing in China in the 1990 s,the continuous acceleration of urbanization and the rapid development of China's economy provide a good development environment for the real estate market.The proportion of real estate industry in national economic accounting is also increasing,which has an important impact on the development of national economy.On the other hand,clothing,food,housing and transportation are the basic content of people's life and the basic livelihood issues.Now people live a good life,so "housing" has surpassed "food" and "clothing",become the primary consideration today.In today's national real estate trading situation,from Wuhan new commercial housing market to Wuhan commercial housing volume and other factors,and predict the future of Wuhan new commercial housing market has a far-reaching economic and social impact.The purpose of this paper is to solve two problems: first,which are the influencing factors of the new commercial housing in Wuhan,the second is how these different factors affect the volume of new residential commodity transactions.In order to solve these two problems,this paper has learned about the relevant research of the former real estate market from the very beginning,including domestic and foreign ones,studies the major events of Wuhan real estate market over the years,and on this basis,determines the index system to study the factors affecting the volume of new commercial housing in Wuhan.Secondly,through Lasso regression,the influencing factors that have significant impact on the volume of new commercial housing transactions in Wuhan are screened out.Then the VAR(3)model is established according to the variables selected.The specific impact of the factors on the volume of new commercial housing in Wuhan and the importance of different influencing factors to the volume are analyzed.The turnover volume of new commercial housing in Wuhan is predicted to analyze the trend of the turnover volume.Finally,after the summary of the analysis results,reasonable suggestions are put forward..After a series of research,the two objectives of this paper have been successfully solved: First,among the many effects,the four factors affecting the turnover of new commercial housing in Wuhan are the four factors of GDP,inflation,personal housing loan interest rate and investment amount of real estate development.Second,the volume of transactions in the gross domestic product and real estate development investment quota after the impact of a positive response,and after the personal housing loan interest rate has been hit,will make the volume of negative effects.Volume responds to different influencing factors,which work together on volume.These four factors play a key role in turnover of gross domestic product and real estate development investment quota.In addition,using the VAR(3)model to fit the volume of the forecast,to obtain a better forecast effect,and use the model to predict the fourth quarter of 2019 turnover of 64189 sets,through the comparison and analysis of the previous data,it is concluded that the volume is in a stable development,the fourth quarter of the volume is slightly higher than the previous three quarters.