Research On Fluctuation And Trend Of Commercial Housing Vacancy Rate In Tianjin

The development of the real estate market is not only related to people’s livelihood issues,but also to the development of China’s market economy.At the same time,it is the research object of many scholars.Although the golden period of real estate market development has passed and it has gradually entered a stage of fierce competition,it is still the development of the national economy For pillar industries,the importance of the real estate market is self-evident.Of course,its development has also brought many problems.One of them is the large number of commercial residential vacancies.However,domestic research on commercial residential vacancies is not thorough.Propose reasonable solutions.The vacancy rate of commercial housing is an important economic indicator that reflects the supply and demand of the commercial housing market.It is particularly important to quantitatively study its fluctuations and trend changes,which helps to judge the development of the commercial housing market.The research on the vacancy rate of housing based on the stock market abroad is relatively mature,but China is in the development stage,and the domestic standards for the definition and calculation method of the vacancy rate of the house are not unified,and cannot be compared with the relevant data of the international vacancy rate.Therefore,domestic scholars There is much controversy in judging whether China’s housing vacancy rate exceeds the international reasonable vacancy rate range.Therefore,by summarizing,comparing and analyzing the research on the domestic and international housing vacancy rate,this article subdivides the housing vacancy problem and defines the concepts of commercial housing vacancy,vacancy rate and reasonable vacancy rate from the perspective of incremental market to determine Commercial housing market conditions.In this paper,an economic analysis of the factors that should be considered in solving the reasonable vacancy rate of commercial housing is carried out.Based on the reference to the existing reasonable vacancy rate models at home and abroad,a regression analysis model for estimating the reasonable vacancy rate is constructed.Taking Tianjin’s commercial housing market as an example,calculate the vacancy rate of Tianjin’s commercial housing and analyze the reasons for its change.Through the general regression analysis and combining the development of Tianjin’s commercial housing market and urban policies,the combination of qualitative and quantitative results in Tianjin’s reasonable commodities The residential vacancy rate ranges from 14% to 26%,and the best commercial residential vacancy rate is 22%.In addition,the fluctuation of the vacancy rate of commercial housing in Tianjin is characterized by the periodic fluctuation of the sin function.Therefore,the GM(1,1 | sin)model is used to analyze and short-term forecast the change of the vacancy rate of commercial housing to judge the future of the commercial housing market in Tianjin Operational status.Aiming at the fluctuation cycle of the vacancy rate of commercial housing in Tianjin and its tendency to exceed the warning line,according to the rational analysis of this article,it is feasible and may have innovative countermeasures and suggestions,which has certain guiding significance for the government to reasonably guide the development of the commercial housing market.