Research On The Construction Of Real-time Housing Price Index System And Its Intrinsic Correlation Effect

Real estate market is a typical regional market,China's vast,numerous and city economic development level differences between the cities,the development of the real estate market level there are significant differences,showed a significant imbalance city.As a barometer of the development of the real estate market,the real estate market price also shows significant correlation and difference.In the process of housing price changes,housing prices in central cities in some regions tend to fluctuate first,which then drives housing prices in surrounding cities to fluctuate accordingly.This correlation in price trend is called "ripple effect".Based on this theory,this paper studies the internal correlation effect of China's real estate market to explore whether there is a correlation effect between China's real estate market.If there is,it makes an in-depth analysis of the conduction mechanism of the internal correlation effect of China's real estate market,such as the conduction direction,conduction velocity and conduction time delay.Based on the state formulates relevant policies mainly refer to 70 large and medium-sized cities in China as the research object,and divide the trading houses of our country real estate market,second-hand housing,rental housing for our new house.First,in the context of network big data,the web crawler technology was used to capture the housing transaction data from August to December 2019,and the Hedonic price index model with the best fitting effect was selected to construct the real-time daily characteristic price index of these three markets,so as to obtain more high-frequency,stable and real-time data compared with the traditional monthly or quarterly index.Then,according to the total population,GDP and investment in real estate development of each city and municipal district at the end of the year,70 large and medium-sized cities in China are divided into first,second and third-tier cities by cluster analysis method.On this basis,further house prices and the variation coefficient of different grade city do statistical analysis.In addition,Morans 'spatial correlation test shows that China's housing prices show a significant positive spatial correlation,indicating that there is a correlation effect between urban housing prices.Finally,based on the characteristic price index compiled above,VAR model,Grangercausality test and generalized impulse response function analysis were used to analyze the internal correlation effect between cities at different levels in three types of housing sources.The results show that the housing price in the more developed cities has a leading role.The housing price of first-tier cities fluctuates at first,and finally drives the housing price fluctuation of second-tier and third-tier cities.In the short term,the housing price of third-tier cities is less related to other cities and relatively independent.In addition,more developed cities have a better overflow effect on other cities than other cities.Specifically,the overflow intensity of first-tier cities is usually more obvious than that of second-tier and third-tier cities,and their overflow speed can reach the peak faster.The main contributions and innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)Selection of large and medium cities of the country's 70 new homes,second-hand housing,rental housing housing price index as the research object,using the web crawler technology crawl real estate daily transaction data.Abandoned the traditional index data source,to increase the frequency of data collection,and fully display the real estate industry development present situation in our country.(2)This paper,by using clustering analysis to 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country is divided into one,two,three line city,based on the city level difference Angle were studied.Broke the traditional to the geographical position of a divided area,respectively,to explore the internal connection of real estate price effect between different level cities,broaden the research field of vision.In general,this study has enriched the research methods and content system of China's real estate market theory to some extent,and based on the research results as the basis of analysis,put forward targeted rationalization Suggestions to promote the steady and healthy development of China's real estate industry.When taking regulatory measures,the government should take measures according to different conditions and local conditions,fully consider the development of real estate in different housing sources and levels,and make more targeted and precise adjustments to fully promote the stable and healthy development of China's real estate market.