Effects Of Climate Change On The Distribution Of Six Species Important Wild Animals And Plants In Tarim Basin And Its Adaptive Countermeasures

Globally,climate change is considered to be one of the most critical factors for loss of species habitat and change of habitat distribution pattern.There are enough research results to prove that climate change can lead to the migration of population,the disappearance of population habitat and even species extinction.In this study,six species,such as Cervus elaphus yarkandensis,Lepus yarkandensis,Gazella subgutturosa,Tamarix ramosissima,Populus euphratica,Phragmites communis,were taken as research objects,select 17 bioclimatic factors that may affect the habitat distribution of each species,by using the combination of Max Ent and arcgis10.2,each species was modeled respectively,and the potential habitat distribution of wild animals and plants in Tarim Basin under the current baseline climate(1950-2000)and the suitable habitat distribution in 2050s(2041-2060)and 2070s(2061-2070)under the future climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were calculated,and find out the climate factors that have great influence on species habitat selection.The AUC value of the model and the importance test of jackknife environmental variables are used to evaluate the accuracy of the model and the importance of environmental variables.Based on the comparison of the current habitat distribution of species under the baseline climate situation and that under multiple climate scenarios in the future,this paper analyzes how multiple climate scenarios affect the future habitat distribution range and pattern of species.The results show that,1.The average AUC values of 10 repeated runs of six species of wild animal and plant models in Tarim Basin were 0.977,0.927,0.894,0.853,0.891and 0.908,respectively,and the prediction accuracy is higher than standard;In the habitat distribution model of Cervus elaphus yarkandensis,the climate factor that have the greatest impact on the habitat distribution of the species is Bio8(mean temperature in the wettest season),with a contribution rate of 12.1%;In the habitat distribution model of Lepus yarkandensis,the most influential climate factor is Bio11(mean temperature in the coldest season),with a contribution rate of 44.6%;In the habitat distribution model of Gazella subgutturosa,Bio11(mean temperature in the coldest season)plays the most important role in habitat selection,with a contribution rate of52.7%;The biggest environmental variable affecting the distribution of Tamarix ramosissima is Bio17(precipitation in the driest season),and Its contribution rate is17.5%;According to the distribution model of Populus euphratica in Tarim Basin,the climate factor that have the greatest impact on the habitat distribution of Populus euphratica is Bio11(average temperature in the coldest season),with a contribution rate of 19.3%;In the distribution model of Phragmites communis in Tarim Basin,Bio11(mean temperature in the coldest season)plays the most important role in the distribution of the species,with a contribution rate of 70.2%.2.The habitat distribution of six species in Tarim Basin under the current baseline climate situation is as follows:The suitable habitat area of Cervus elaphus yarkandensis under the current baseline climate situation is 69112.3km~2,accounting for 4.16%of the total area;The suitable habitat area of Lepus yarkandensis is 211628.4km~2,accounting for 12.74%of the total area;The suitable habitat area of Gazella subgutturosa is 2558417km~2,accounting for 15.47%of the total area;The suitable habitat area of Tamarix ramosissima is 229186.3km~2,accounting for 13.80%of the total area;The suitable habitat areas of Populus euphratica is 197026.5km~2,accounting for 11.86%of the total area;The suitable habitat areas of Phragmites communis is 199998.5km2,accounting for 12.04%of the total area.3.The changes of the suitable habitats of the main wild animals and plants in two future climate scenarios and two future times in Tarim Basin are as follows:The suitable habitat range of Cervus elaphus yarkandensis increased by 0.06%,-0.02%,-0.03%and0.07%respectively;At present,in 2050s and 2070s,the change direction of habitat centroid position is 86.4285E,40.8955N?84.3249E,41.2086N?84.8947E,40.513N,and the migration distance is 179.784km and 136.099km respectively.The suitable habitat range of Lepus yarkandensis increased by 1.37%,-3.68%,-1.18%and-0.01%respectively;At present,in 2050s and 2070s,the change direction of habitat centroid position is 82.6483E,39.9561N?80.3152E,39.3162N?80.2549E,38.4685N,and the migration distance is 212.063km and 264.32km respectively.The suitable habitat range of Gazella subgutturosa increased by 0.77%,1.84%,4.3%and-2.57%respectively;At present,in 2050s and 2070s,the change direction of habitat centroid position is83.7546E,39.3154N?82.8469E,38.7843N?82.1674E,39.3522N,and the migration distance is 98.135km and 86.1338km respectively.The suitable habitat range of Tamarix ramosissima increased by 3.36%,-1.18%,2.24%and 0.89%respectively;The current,2050s and 2070s habitat centroid position changes in the direction of 83.1055E,40.2605N?82.1066E,40.1024N?82.7462E,39.4211N,respectively,with a migration distance of 86.657km and 98.243km.The suitable habitat range of Populus euphratica increased by 0.2%,-3.65%,-0.43%and-2.25%respectively;The current,2050s and2070s are 82.8944E,39.3642N?80.3521E,39.6522N?80.9241E,39.6857N,220.425 km and 172.720 km respectively.The suitable habitat range of Phragmites communis increased by-0.64%,-2.51%,-3.45%and-3.46%respectively;at present,in 2050s and 2070s,the change direction of habitat centroid position is 80.9594E,38.6844N?81.2554E,39.3542N?83.1205E,39.7842N,and the migration distance is78.742km and 222.689km respectively.4.Using Arc Map overlap analysis tool to calculate the suitable habitat overlapping area of six species of wild animals and plants in Tarim Basin,so as to find out the species priority reserve.The overlapping area of suitable habitats of Populus euphratica,Tamarix ramosissima and Phragmites communis is 186450.9km~2,accounting for 11.23%of the total area;The suitable habitat overlap area of Cervus elaphus yarkandensis,Lepus yarkandensis and Gazella subgutturosa,is 63925.6km~2,accounting for 3.85%of the total area;The suitable habitat overlap area of Cervus elaphus yarkandensis,Lepus yarkandensis,Gazella subgutturosa,Tamarix ramosissima,Populus euphratica and Phragmites communis is 46285.5km~2,accounting for 2.79%of the total area,and only 0.84%of the priority reserves are protected by nature reserves;This habitat area is mainly distributed in the east of Qiemo County,the west of Ruoqiang County,Yuli County,Kuche county and Shaya County,etc.Therefore,it is suggested that the above regions should be located in the priority reserve of animal and plant resources in Tarim Basin,with the focus on the biodiversity and trend of change of species habitat follow with climate change.