Research On Calculation Method Of Urban Exposure To Flood Hazard Considering Residents' Trip

With the global warming and the increase of extreme weather events,rainstorm and flood hazard have become more frequent and more serious,which is one of the major global problems.As "non-engineering measures" and the important method of the research on hazard risk,urban exposure to flood hazard quantify urban where may be adversely affected by flooding,including its people,environment and resources,infrastructure,economic,social and cultural assets.Quantitative calculation and spacetime simulation of urban exposure to flood hazard can reveal the degree of exposure.The evolution process and law of urban exposure to flood hazard can provide support for the flood management of the city.However,the expression and calculation method of the urban exposure to flood hazard in the present research mainly reflects the average state and the overall region's characteristics of the exposure,and the linear relationship between the exposure and the hazard itself.By describing the static characteristics of the exposure,it only provide people with a single or multiple state of the city's overall exposure,can't reflect the influence of the dynamic characteristics of the elements of urban flood hazard on the expression and calculation of exposure.In view of this,through the analysis of hazard factors and hazard bearing bodies(like people),this article summarized the space-time dynamic characteristics of urban exposure to flood hazard,with the dynamic simulation of population exposure as a main line,and put forward a calculation method of urban exposure to flood hazard considering residents' trip,improved the quality of urban exposure results to flood hazard,explored the space-time simulation of urban exposure to flood hazard.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)analyzed the connotation of urban exposure to flood hazard and the temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of flooding itself and the population distribution caused by the residents' trip,constructed the spatial unit of exposure.Based on the three types of hazard bearing body(people,roads and buildings),this paper established the index system of urban exposure to flood hazard,and put forward a quantitative model of urban exposure to flood hazard.(2)based on the agent model,this paper divided agent types according to the social characters,combined with the daily activities and disaster response behavior characteristics of the residents,built agent activity patterns in daily scenarios and hazard scenarios,constructed a method to simulate residents' trip of urban flood hazard scenarios.Based on this,combined with the method of urban flood simulation and exposure calculation,this paper constructed a space-time simulation method for urban exposure to flood hazard.(3)based on the quantitative calculation and space-time simulation method of urban exposure to flood hazard,this paper carried out experimental verification in Lishui city and completed the construction of the prototype system,analyzed the simulation results,providing the way of application and practice for the theoretical research.