Research On Intergrating Time And Space Meteorological Forecast Based On Mountain Geological Hazard Zoning And Rainfall-induced

Geological hazard is one of the main types of natural disasters.It has a very important position in the natural disasters. The occurrence of geological hazard will seriously affect human life, and it will harm to people's life even. Geological hazard is widely exists in people's life, and the harm from geological hazard just behind the earthquake.In recent years, many experts and scholars in our country use different methods to do the research in regional geological hazard warning forecast. On the one hand, they monitore the regional geological hazards precisionly, on the other hand, they make macroscopic precursory warning aim at regions.There are lots of successful cases in the two methods. However, it is hard to warn and forecast some geological hazards, especially the mountainous geological hazards. Because the geographical positions are so complicated, and there are many factors influence on geological hazards. Therefore, the research progress of the mountainous geological hazards warning and forecast is slow so far.This dissertation select typical mountainous area Chengkou county in Chongqing for the research. Firstly, to have a study on geological hazard susceptibility mapping, then do some research on rainfall-induced geological hazards meteorological forecast and early warning grading, and effective rainfall forecast and warning critical value on this basis. And to build the intergrating time and space meteorological forecast based on mountain geological hazard zoning and rainfall-induced model at last. The main research work and results are as follows:(1)Selecting typical mountainous area Chengkou county in Chongqing for the research on the basis of ARCGIS. Considering height, slope direction, slope gradient, slope curvature,slope position, distance from water system, distance from faults, distance from highways, formation lithology, NDVI, micro-topography,effective rainfall, dip and escarpment slope(13 factors in total) are chosen as the impact factors. Afterwards these factors are rasterized in special graph layers, and further on platform of ARCGIS, they are presented as geospatial data by extraction of fishnet attribute data in the research area.(2)To make a evaluation on geological hazards susceptibility in the study area, using logistic regression model. The geological hazards susceptibility logic regression model is set up through R software. Then all the geospatial data is handled in next process of simulation calculation, and the results of geological hazards evaluation in the study area is achieved.(3)The effective rainfall model is established. Then make a research on meteorological forecast of geological hazards in the warning levels and the corresponding critical value of rainfall warning forecast. And then building the intergrating time and space meteorological forecast based on mountain geological hazard zoning and rainfall-induced model.(4)Select two concrete examples to analyze and verify the model:Xie jiawan, dabang village, zhouxi town, Chengkou,Chongqing landslide and Hong yanzi, Wushan, Chongqing landslide. The results show that, this model has high feasibility and warning forecast accuracy.This dissertation makes the research on intergrating time and space meteorological forcast based on mountain geological hazard zoning and rainfall-induced, by relying on“twelfth five-year” national science and technology support plan?rural regional spatial planning and land use optimization technology integration specification ?(2012BAJ22B06). The study may provide reference for mountain geological hazards forcast and warning research.