PROGNOSIS OF ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT IN LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SCIENCE IN MOROCCO: COMPARISON OF EXAMINATORIAL AND NONEXAMINATORIAL PREDICTION MODELS

In regard to academic achievement in library and information science in Morocco, the objective of this study was to determine the predictability of two prediction models. The examinatorial model was based on a set of scores on ESI Entrance Examination, a costly, verbal ability, written and oral set of entrance tests of the national school of library and information science. The biographical model utilized a set of readily available, potential, cognitive and noncognitive predictors. The research was designed to compare the two models on three alternative criterion variables, overall grade point average (GPA) in all components of the curriculum, freshman year GPA in all components of the curriculum and overall GPA in the core curriculum, courses in library and information science. Data was analyzed for a three-year-plus-practicum undergraduate program and a two-year-plus-thesis graduate program. The sample consisted of all graduates of both programs on whom data was available; more than 70 per cent of the total population.;Stepwise multiple regression was used to derive the predictive models which were cross-validated on the last class of each program. No conclusive findings were reached for the graduate program due, mainly, to small screening and calibration samples. For the undergraduate program, the biographical model consistently accounted for more variance, in each criterion variable, than did the examinatorial model. For the three criterion variables listed above, R('2)s of .22, .15 and .25 were arrived at through the utilization of the biographical model. The examinatorial model yielded R('2)s of .08, .06 and .09. The prediction in the biographical cross-validated model were found to be: standing on the high school diploma, major, marital status, age and work experience in information related fields. The testing of a supplementary cognate research question supported the conclusion that ESI Entrance Examination was not a predictor of academic achievement. The crude predictions which may be obtained by application of the biographical model should be complemented by other selection criteria. Further research is highly needed in this area to consolidate its theoretical base.