| The objective of this thesis is to add value of integrating deterministic and probabilistic methods to quantify uncertainty and to identify additional potential in hydrocarbon volume estimates. The quantified uncertainty and risk in hydrocarbon volume estimates are used to make economical decisions in exploration, delineation and field development. Probabilistic methodology is an important tool to quantify parameters involved in hydrocarbon volume estimates. A single deterministic hydrocarbon volume number does not show uncertainty or any hydrocarbon potential.; In this study, two strategies were used in pore-volume evaluation. In one case, the reservoir was subdivided into three zones and their average properties were determined. Their pore-volume distributions for each zone were simulated individually and then aggregated by using Monte Carlo simulation. In second case no zonation was done and average properties were determined. The pore-volume distribution was simulated for the whole reservoir. In both simulations cases, three distribution functions are used as inputs: Net pay, Porosity, and Area. Parameters in a model can be either "independent" or "dependent and both cases were assumed in this study. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)... |
