| Wildlife across the globe is beginning to show dramatic and unidirectional responses to anthropogenic climate change. With continued and accelerated changes likely in the future, we expect to see even greater shifts in species phenology, community composition and our ability to manage the most threatened components of our natural heritage. While a changing climate is inevitable to some extent, the magnitude of the environmental shifts and species' responses to these changes are still coming into focus for climate scientists. Using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index and 46 focal species from the Willamette Valley in Oregon, we demonstrate one approach to identifying those species most susceptible to climate change while accounting for areas of uncertainty in climate change projections. We found that among the six taxonomic groups, butterflies, fishes, and plants are the most vulnerable to climate change, while herptiles, mammals, and birds tend to be less vulnerable. Furthermore, an analysis of the uncertainties inherent in such vulnerability assessments showed that variability among global circulation models contributed more to vulnerability score uncertainty than did variability among emissions scenarios. Vulnerability assessments such as this one are valuable tools for helping conservation managers prioritize and shape climate change adaptation strategies. A better understanding of the uncertainties associated with forecasting future climates should be used to build flexibility into conservation plans and direct future research. |
