| A simulation/optimization based system was developed to analyze impacts of stochastic elements on robustness of forest operational plans. The system simulates the staged implementation of a plan, and includes realizations of random data, and/or events, and the manager's ability to re-plan in response. The system was demonstrated using a case study derived from a forest operation in Northwest New Brunswick. The study deals with major harvesting and transportation decisions, and the effect of three stochastic factors: variations in inventory, ground conditions, and weather. Robustness, as measured by changes in plan performance, was assessed in terms of overall plan profit, mill delivery targets, roadside inventory levels, and the number of harvest schedule changes. The study showed that the system was able to detect changes in plan performance and statistical analysis showed the relative importance of each stochasticity to variation in plan performance. |
