Gentrification and historic districts: Public policy considerations in the designation of historic districts in New York City

In the last fifty years, many historic neighborhoods in New York City have experienced cycles of ethnic and/or economic succession. Many of these neighborhoods have in the last thirty years exhibited gentrification, raising serious issues such as displacement and the lack of affordable housing in the city.; At the same time, the city has been designating neighborhoods as historic districts. Since 1965 some eighty historic districts have been created. Popular wisdom and anecdotal evidence links the designation of historic neighborhoods---and the subsequent design review by the city's Landmarks Preservation Commission---with gentrification as a causal agent.; This thesis examines the demographic and economic changes in nine historic districts representing the five boroughs of New York City and the majority of its historic housing types. The districts are compared to control areas of similar history and architectural style to ascertain what similarities and differences exist between the designated and undesignated areas.; Complex Systems Theory is used to explain behaviors, to interpret results, and to guide public policy recommendations.; Analysis of economic and demographic data from these districts indicates no direct relationship between gentrification and either historic district designation or the drive to create an historic district, which generally begins years earlier. In some cases, gentrification begins before either the drive to designate or designation, in some cases after one or the other, and in some cases gentrification---or some aspect of gentrification---does not occur. In cases were gentrification does occur, some districts exhibit as much or more gentrification in the control areas as in the designated areas.; Finally, the public policy implications of the results of these comparisons are considered and suggestions for implementation are described.; The primary recommendation is that a truly comprehensive planning effort---one not restricted to land use controls such as zoning---be initiated whenever a drive to create an historic district begins. Examples from other cities contribute to the formulation of approaches and interventions. Since the onset of gentrification is gradual and often subtle, the drive to create an historic district creates the opportunity to closely examine a neighborhood and determine if any and what steps need to be taken to ameliorate possible negative consequences.