| Spatial distribution models can be useful in studying the potential effects of climate change on highly vulnerable ecosystems to climate warming such as tropical high mountain ecosystems (paramos). I developed spatial distribution models for plant growth forms most common in the paramos of Los Nevados National Park (Colombia), specifically for woody, graminoid, giant rosette, cushion and forb. I derived maps with the distribution of environmental variables and growth forms, from a Digital Elevation Model, climatic network data and a vegetation map. I developed geographical models using gradient analysis, and statistical models using multiple linear regressions, and with these derived the potential vegetation distribution maps for current and projected, warmer climate (2030, 2050). Temperature, soil moisture and plant interactions were the most important factors explaining the distribution of growth forms. Under warming conditions decreases in giant rosettes, graminoids and cushions, coupled with increases in woody and forbs growth forms were predicted. |
