The role of technology denial in nuclear nonproliferation

This project analyzes the relative effectiveness of nuclear nonproliferation efforts focused on technological denial and those that focus on states' motivations. I hypothesize that motivations-based nonproliferation efforts have been more effective in stopping proliferation. To test my hypothesis, I analyzed five cases: Libya, South Korea, Pakistan, South Africa, and Brazil. My analysis largely supported my hypothesis. Chapters two through four of this thesis analyze the three sub-hypotheses. The five states used a variety of methods to bypass technology denial efforts. Technology denial was effective in creating time for motivations-based nonproliferation efforts to succeed. Improvements in regional security, economic and integration incentives, and individual leadership contributed to successful motivations-based nonproliferation efforts. This research emphasizes the need to address the underlying motivations spurring nuclear proliferation and to fix loopholes in international technology denial regimes.