Air quality modeling of future power generation

Distributed generation (DG) has the potential to supply a significant portion of increased power demands in California. DG is characterized by many stationary power generators that are distributed throughout an urban air basin. In contrast, central-generation sources are typically located outside the basin. As a result, DG may lead to increased pollutant emissions within an urban air basin, which could adversely affect air quality. However, the use of Combined Heating and Power (CHP) with DG may reduce the energy consumption for space heating and conditioning, resulting in net decrease of pollutant emissions. The present work assesses the air quality impacts associated with DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California in future years.;The analysis of air quality impacts of DG presented in this thesis is based on air quality simulations using the UCI-CIT Airshed model, a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computer model. Model sensitivity to input parameters and to model formulation is evaluated and model predictions are compared with results obtained by other models. Results suggest that air quality predictions using different chemical mechanisms can lead to significant differences in peak ozone concentrations.;A methodology for generating an emissions inventory of future DG is presented. The methodology uses detailed information of land use data and market studies to generate the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions from DG. Simulation results suggest that expected DG implementation will cause minor effects on ozone and particulate matter concentrations. A sensitivity analysis of the methodology for estimating emissions shows that DG implementation will increase ozone and PM2.5 by less than 3 ppb and 3 mug/m3, respectively. Air quality impacts of DG and of an equivalent capacity of central generation are compared. Results show that central generation could cause significant air quality impacts in localized regions, even though total emissions from power plants are an order of magnitude lower than some DG units. Finally, the air quality impacts of widespread use of electricity to power vehicles are evaluated. Results suggest that reductions in vehicle emissions would offset emissions from power generation, resulting in a net decrease in total emissions and pollutant concentrations.