Modeling And Policy Analysis Of Tianjin’s Power Generation System Under Carbon Emissions Constraints

In recent years, with the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, more and moreattention has been paid to researches on how to select technologies of reducing theCO2emission. As the power generation system is the largest source of CO2emissions,it has achieved more and more attention. Now more and more people focus on theway to effectively reform its irrational power structure, which can save energy andreduce the carbon emission effectively. So the power generation system can developsustainably. Because different regions have different energy structures, differentgeographical environment, and different corresponding rational energy policy, it isnecessary for us to model different regions according to their own characteristics.Currently, Tianjin power generation system’s structure is unreasonable, and itsreliance on coal is too severe, which is about more than98%. With less and less fossilfuel, and more and more serious phenomenon of global warming, it is necessary for usto change power generation system in Tianjin into a effective and rational powersystem without delay.Based on the energy structure of Tianjin and the existing new energy technologiesin other places, this research collected energy-related data of this city and modeled thepower generation system in Tianjin. The paper set one basic scenario with theconventional coal fired power plant only and five other scenarios. By running themodels based on the different scenarios, we get different power generation systemstructure and CO2emissions in Tianjin power generation system. The analysis ofmodel results showed that Tianjin power generation systems should developintegrated gasification cycle technology, hydropower technology, wind powertechnology and solar power technology. Implementation of carbon taxes and carbonemissions policy can effectively accelerate the speed of the new power generationtechnologies to join the system. Finally, this paper gives rational proposals based onthe results of the model and the actual situation in Tianjin.