The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Family Entrepreneurship

As an inevitable result of economic policy operation,uncertainty will have an important impact on micro family behavior.Based on this,this paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on family entrepreneurial decision-making and entrepreneurial performance,and analyzes the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty affecting family entrepreneurial decision-making.In this paper,the research is not confined to a certain economic policies of the gain and loss,but on the whole in the perspective of economic policy uncertainty,deepen the macroeconomic policy and interactive relationship of micro family entrepreneurship research,are a good complement to uncertain economic policy research,also enriched the family to explore the influential factors of entrepreneurial behavior.Based on the "China economic policy uncertainty index" developed by Baker et al.(2013)and the micro household financial survey(CHFS)project of China from 2011 to 2017,an empirical study was conducted.The results of the baseline regression show that the increase of economic policy uncertainty leads to a significant decline in the willingness of households to start businesses.The increasing uncertainty of economic policies increases the difficulty for families to understand and predict the future external environment.When families cannot understand or predict how the changes of the future environment will affect their business activities,they may be motivated to avoid risks and give up the current opportunity to start a business.Further research found that the increase in economic policy uncertainty led to a significant decline in the profitability of entrepreneurial households.The heterogeneity analysis shows that when the economic policy uncertainty increases,the entrepreneurial tendency of urban households decreases to a greater extent than that of rural households,families in the western region greater than those in the middle and eastern regions,and families headed by male households greater than those headed by female households.From the perspective of entrepreneurial types,the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on opportunistic entrepreneurship is significantly higher than that on subsistence entrepreneurship.The mechanism analysis shows that increasing uncertainty in economic policies will significantly aggravate the bank credit constraint faced by families and further inhibit their entrepreneurial decisions.This paper expands the research on economic policy uncertainty,provides a new macro perspective on the influencing factors of household entrepreneurship,and enlightenment on how economic policies can play a more effective role in governance,and how families can improve their ability to cope with external risks.In terms of policy enlightenment,the government should fully consider the negative impact caused by the uncertainty of economic policies,maintain the stability and continuity of economic policies,avoid the ups and downs of policies,and enhance the transparency and openness of policy making.In addition,we should continue to optimize the entrepreneurial environment,lower the threshold of entrepreneurship,expand the external financing sources of family entrepreneurship activities,and constantly release the entrepreneurial potential of the whole people.