Study On Risk Management Of Secondary Mortgage Loan Of Housing Accumulation Fund In Hubei Province

Since the reform and opening up,my country’s financial industry has developed rapidly,and various types of loan business have emerged.As a system to protect people’s livelihood,the housing provident fund system has received extensive attention from the society since its establishment.However,with the development of China’s economy and the ever-changing real estate market,China’s current housing provident fund system can no longer fully meet the financing needs of the public.Many people have to make secondary mortgages on houses that already bear housing provident fund loans to alleviate capital needs.This is the housing provident fund secondary mortgage loan.Although the housing provident fund secondary mortgage loan has effectively alleviated some of the financing needs,it is accompanied by new loan risks.This paper takes the risk management of housing provident fund secondary mortgage loans in Hubei Province as the research object,and identifies and analyzes the factors that affect the loan risk from the micro and macro levels.Since the risk factors of the housing provident fund secondary mortgage loan at the micro level are very similar to the housing provident fund loan and personal housing mortgage loan,this article focuses on the analysis and research from the macro risk factors of the housing provident fund secondary mortgage loan.After identifying the risks of the housing provident fund secondary mortgage loan,after selecting representative variables from various influencing factors,the CPV model is used to process the actual data and measure the loan risk on the basis of three macroeconomic indicators.After measuring the loan risk,the Va R in-risk value is calculated according to the conditional variance derived from the EGARCH model,and the future risk of this type of business in Hubei Province is predicted based on the non-performing debt ratio of the Hubei Province Housing Provident Fund secondary mortgage loan.Finally,combined with theoretical knowledge and empirical conclusions,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the risk management of the second mortgage of housing provident fund in Hubei Province.