Study On The Price Transmission Effect Of China's Tariff On American Soybean Imports

Soybean is an important agricultural product in China,which has multiple functions such as edible,oil pressing and feed making.In the Sino US trade frictions,China imposed tariffs on American soybeans,which affected the price and quantity of imported soybeans.At the same time,the price of pork continued to rise,which had a certain impact on the level of national living consumption.Based on the trade frictions between China and the United States,this paper briefly describes the current situation of China's soybean production and marketing and the impact of trade frictions between China and the United States on China's soybean market,and explains the transmission mechanism.In the chapter of empirical analysis,by using the data from January 2017 to December 2019,using VAR model,VEC model and least square method,this paper first analyzes before and after China imposed tariffs on imported soybeans from the United States The influence of soybean on the price of soybean oil and soybean meal,the influence of soybean meal and pig breeding on the price of pork,and the influence of soybean and its main related products(soybean oil and pork)on the CPI of food are analyzed.After analysis,the conclusion is that there is a stable price transfer relationship between soybean and soybean oil meal,especially between soybean and soybean meal.The trade friction between China and the United States has little impact on China's soybean market.The main reason for the rise of pork price is that the number of pigs on hand and the number of sows that can be bred are difficult to meet the market demand due to African swine fever,and the impact of soybean meal price changes is relatively small.Through the study of the relationship between the change of pork price and food CPI,it is found that the rise of pork price has a positive effect on the change of food CPI,and the ability of this effect is becoming stronger after the tariff is imposed.At the same time,after summing up the results of the analysis,some suggestions are put forward to improve the per unit yield of domestic soybeans,actively establish soybean trade cooperation with neighboring countries,improve the stability of China's soybean import system,and reduce the dependence on imported soybeans from a single country.