A Study On The Impact Of Sino-US Trade Friction On International Gold Price

In recent years,the gold price is affected by the international political and economic situation,and the gold market is changing rapidly.From the implementation of the tariff increase measures in July 2018 to the signing of the Sino-US Phase I Economic and Trade Agreement in January 2020,the United States has weakened the current account deficit through trade protectionist measures.It has worsened the global trade environment and exacerbated market uncertainty.During this process,dollar liquidity fluctuated due to factors such as capital returning to the United States and investor confidence,which caused changes in the prices of financial assets worldwide.As a good hedging tool,gold’s price also fluctuates violently.Gold is a component of foreign exchange reserve assets and investment market.Therefore,it is of great significance for individuals,institutions and governments to study the impact of SinoUS trade frictions on gold prices.This article analyzes the impact of various Sino-US trade frictions on the international gold price by combing and analyzing the mechanism of the influencing factors on the international gold price.The demonstration is divided into two parts.Taking the implementation of the tax increase policy of China and the United States,the progress of the Sino-US consultation at the G20 Summit,Trump’s announcement of the tax increase on Chinese enterprises and the signing of the Sino-US Phase I Economic and Trade Agreement as the main events,the first part analyzes the shortterm impact of the Sino-US trade war on the gold price.Event 1 has a significant negative effect on the cumulative abnormal return of gold,Event 2,Event 3 and Event4 have a significant positive effect on the cumulative abnormal return of gold.The market reaction is the most intense when China and the United States formally implement the tax increase policy.In the second part,taking July 6,2018 and January15,2020 as the boundary,the data of the Sino-US trade war were selected to establish vector error correction models,to study the short-term deviation of the influencing factors of gold price in stages.The research results show that under the influence of the U.S.interest rate hike cycle and the Sino-U.S.trade war,the response of gold prices to interest rates,CPI and crude oil prices showed an opposite trend in the trade war.The U.S.dollar index has always been the most important factor affecting the price of gold.And different to long-term changes,the price of gold has been significantly increased by the impact of interest rates.Compared with the time before the Sino-US trade war,the fluctuation of gold price was affected by the U.S.dollar index and increased by the influence of inflation and the stock market during the trade war.But stock markets have less of an impact on gold prices.