Research On Credit Risk Management Of Online Supply Chain Finance Based On System Dynamics

With the application of Internet technology and big data,supply chain finance has become increasingly mature,and an innovative model,online supply chain finance,has emerged.This model is an important way to solve the difficult and expensive financing of SMEs.There are many links involved in the operation of online supply chain finance.There are more uncertain risk factors,including credit risk,and there are also mutual influences between risk factors.This model has caused more complicated reasons for credit risk.As an important fund provider of online supply chain finance,commercial banks are the mainstay of this business and face higher and more complex credit risks.Against this background,strengthening the analysis of factors affecting credit risk and formulating corresponding risk management measures to prevent systemic credit risk has important practical significance for commercial banks.System Dynamics was proposed by Professor Forrester of the Massachusett Institute of Technology.It is a method to analyze problems from a systemic and holistic perspective and solve complex dynamic problems in the process of risk research.Regarding online supply chain financial credit risk as a "chain" overall system,the various factors within the system are in a state of constant change and are a relatively complex system.Therefore,it is necessary to manage the process standardization and reduce the process Uncertainty.This paper uses system dynamics to study the credit risk of online supply chain finance.It can analyze the dynamic and complex problems in the system and make recommendations for commercial banks in terms of credit risk management to achieve the purpose of controlling credit risk.The paper first outlines the basic connotation and main advantages of online supply chain finance.By introducing the operation modes of online supply chain finance dominated by different entities,commercial banks have customer resource advantages and capital advantages in developing online supply chain financial services.And risk management and control advantages,thus explaining that the research object of this article is online supply chain finance dominated by commercial banks;then it focuses on analyzing the sources of online supply chain financial credit risk,including incomplete laws,unreasonable process design and platform information.Three aspects of accuracy are new sources of credit risk.Compared with traditional supply chain finance,online supply chain financial credit risk has the characteristics of complex measurement,rapid diffusion,and easy transfer.Finally,the concepts,characteristics,and basics of system dynamics The principle is explained,and the main applications of system dynamics in risk management are also introduced.Then,for the credit risk of online supply chain finance studied in this thesis,the factors affecting credit risk are analyzed one by one from the external and internal aspects of the system,and it is clear how these risk factors specifically affect credit risk.On the basis of combing and summarizing a large amount of literature,combining the credit influencing factors in the above analysis and following the construction principles of the indicator system,an online supply chain financial credit risk influencing factor system has been established,which is ready for subsequent construction of models for simulation research.Finally,the paper makes use of the dynamic model of the online supply chain financial credit risk system to conduct a simulation study of the commercial banks' online supply chain business.First,the expert scoring method and the analytic hierarchy process are used to assign values to the risk influencing factors in the system,and the corresponding weight coefficients are obtained.Then,each subsystem is simulated and the simulation results are analyzed to give a risk control strategy.Finally,Perform a sensitivity analysis on the factors involved in the risk control strategy,and observe the changes in credit risk after the role of the strategy.For example,after adopting the relevant strategy,the credit risk is significantly reduced,indicating that the risk control method is effective.The supply chain financial business credit risk management provides a basis for decision-making.