Risk Assessment And Financial Response Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project

With the improvement of urbanization and the development of Economy and society,the public's demand for high-quality urban infrastructure is increasing,urban Rail Transit(Urt)is a new type of urban transportation infrastructure,which can alleviate the pressure of city travel,improve the condition of urban transportation,save energy and protect environment.In order to reduce the pressure on the government's financial expenditure in urban rail transit projects and avoid the occurrence of its debt risks,the introduction of PPP model in the construction of Urban Rail Transit is a new direction for the diversification of investment subjects and financing channels in the field of infrastructure in China.However,due to the characteristics of the Urban Rail Transit Project such as high investment cost,long investment recovery period,high construction technology coefficient,high engineering difficulty coefficient,difficult project management and high financial dependence of the government,risks from government,construction,operations and finance may arise,it leads to project financial risk and government financial risk,such as project overspending,insufficient operation income,excessive operation and maintenance cost,delayed completion,etc..These problems need us to pay close attention to and carry on the system,the comprehensive analysis to them,discusses the finance how to deal with in order to safeguard the government finance sustainable development.This article mainly carries on the research in the following aspects:Firstly,starting with the analysis of the public attribute,spillover effect and risk of Urban Rail Transit PPP project,this paper systematically analyzes the risk generation of Urban Rail Transit PPP project and the principle of using financial means to deal with the risk of PPP project,therefore,this paper proposes to use financial means to deal with the risk of government expenditure in urban rail transit PPP project.It also makes an overall analysis of the development status of the Domestic Urban Rail Transit PPP project,and confirms that the Overall Development Status of the PPP project continues to be in a good general direction,this paper comprehensively analyzes the whole development situation of PPP project from the aspects of its present situation and project difficulties.Secondly,on the basis of recognizing that the overall development of Urban Rail Transit PPP project is good and there are difficulties,the risk factors of urban rail transit PPP project are analyzed by using analytic hierarchy process,at the same time,in order to ensure the accuracy of the analysis results,based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),combined with the grey relational degree method,the paper makes a weight analysis on the influence degree of many risks in Urban Rail Transit PPP project on the government financial sustainability.The Risk Assessment results show that we need to pay more attention to the risk of fare adjustment,the risk of operating cost and the risk of operating income in the operation of urban rail transit projects,and the cost changes in the construction process,the risk of interest rate change in financial risk.And through micro-analysis of the Specific Urban Rail Transit PPP project,on the basis of scientific calculation of the financial indicators of the specific project,such as the responsibility of government expenditure and the operational benefit of the project,using the sensitivity analysis method,analysis of sensitive factors: Ticket Revenue,non-ticket Revenue,construction costs,operating costs,interest rate changes for the project rate of return(IRR),government subsidy net present value(FNPV)and other indicators of project benefits,this paper analyzes the present situation of financial bearing capacity of Urban Rail Transit PPP project risk.Finally,based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and grey correlation degree analysis,and the analysis of the current financial carrying capacity,the paper puts forward the specific risk coping strategies and measures of Urban Rail Transit PPP project from the financial perspective.This paper puts forward some countermeasures from the aspects of maintaining the financial sustainability of the government budget management,improving the scientific nature of the financial sustainability budget management,perfecting the financial sustainability of the government compensation methods,and coordinating the relationship between the government financial subsidies and PPP projects.The PPP model keeps the original intention of easing the government's financial pressure and reducing the government's debt risk,and realizes the sustainable development of government finance.This paper has certain reference value for the theoretical innovation in risk identification,evaluation and government financial risk prevention of Urban Rail Transit PPP project,it is of practical significance to reduce the risk of government financial expenditure and debt,and to improve the operation efficiency of Urban Rail Transit PPP project.