Research On The Export Trade Effect Of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment To ASEAN And EU

With the Chinese government officially proposed the strategy of "going out" in 2000,over the past decade,China’s foreign direct investment has experienced a rapid development stage.In 2015 the annual China’s foreign direct investment flow was $145.67 billion,up 18.3%from a year earlier,achieved a historic breakthrough and ranked second for the first time in the world,and over the same period to attract foreign investment,China has entered the ranks of big country of foreign investment.At the same time,the overall downward in the context of global economic,China’s economy is facing a slowdown of the"new normal",and seek new economic growth point is needed.The relationship between the investment and trade has been the focus of academic debate,foreign direct investment may produce and trade complementary or trade substitution effect.Then whether the rapid growth of foreign direct investment is to promote China’s foreign exports,or to inhibit China’s foreign exports?ASEAN is the world’s largest group of developing countries,and the EU is the world’s largest developed country economic entities,there is a huge difference between them in the resource endowment,the level of economic development and industrial structure.At the same time,ASEAN and the EU are the most important trade and investment partners of China.Through comparative study on China’s export trade effects on direct investment of these two regional economies,it is possible to explore the differences in investment and trade relations,to better guide our country enterprise of foreign direct investment,and to promote our country to achieve the goal of the strategy of "going out".First of all,this paper analyzes the current situation of China’s direct investment in,ASEAN and EU,such as the scale,industry distribution,country distribution,investment subject and investment mode,and then analyzes the effect of China’s export trade on ASEAN and EU direct investment,using the theory of foreign direct investment combined with the motivation of China’s direct investment in ASEAN and EU,and next puts forward the corresponding research hypotheses.Secondly,this paper makes the panel analysis based on China’s direct investment and export data from 2005 to 2015 of ten ASEAN countries and 20 EU countries.The empirical results show that China’s direct investment to ASEAN has a significant promotion effect on exports,And China’s FDI to EU has negative effects on exports(substitution effect).There are internal differences between ASEAN and EU.Finally,according to the conclusion of empirical analysis,this paper argues that,in order to exert the promotion effect of FDI on exports,enlarge the export scale and gradually transfer the domestic production capacity,China should guide the investment to ASEAN and other developing economies body.At the end of the paper,policy recommendations on promoting China’s direct investment in ASEAN are presented from two levels of government and enterprises respectively.