The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors From The Perspective Of Finance And Trade On RMB Internationalization

Due to the economic growth and the growing influential power to the world trade and economy,China has made great progress in the RMB internationalization process during the last decade.However,the degree of RMB internationalization is relatively low compared to the main currencies accepted by the world.Begin with the situation of RMB internationalization today,this paper demonstrates the internationalization differences between RMB and other currencies,then this paper make an analysis on the interior and exterior environment concerning the “One Belt One Road” Construction,national energy security and the adversary impacts,from which we conclude that the RMB internationalization is faced with both opportunities—the “One Belt One road” strategy and challenges—complicated and changing global environment.By constructing the VAR model that involves the quantified endogenous variables based on RMB internationalization,monetary policy,degree of financial market development,trade and exchange rate,together with a dummy variable representing the financial crisis,this paper makes analytic demonstration on the financial and trade factors that contribute to the internationalization of RMB based on the data range from the year of 2005 until 2018,whose result shows that the financial factors are more significant than trade factors: the degree of financial market development hinders the internationalization in a certain degree,the monetary policy factor has great influence on the RMB internationalization through the channel of interest rate.However,the volume of trade and REER are insignificant in our empirical model.So,we conclude the financial factors play a dominant role in the process to RMB internationalization,besides,according to our encvironment analysis,the energy-related economic and trade cooperation also play an important role.As a result,we believe that it is necessary to expand and deepen the construction of domestic financial market,enrich the investment variety and improve the investment awareness and ability of Chinese residents,and in this process,steadily promote the openness of capital account and grasp the opportunity of “One Belt,One Road” by establishing more overses financial branches and innovatively apply the PPP mode,so as to achieve RMB internationalization through the path of “surrounding”-“regionalization” –“internationalization”.