An Empirical Research Of RMB Internationalization In The "One Belt And One Road" Area

After the subprime crisis broke out in 2008,the global economy has generally entered the new normal of "low interest rates and low growth",and there is an uneven recovery.India,Latin America have cheap labor,vast land resources and low production costs to attract labor-intensive foreign companies.They join the United States-led wild goose model.As the world's second largest economy and the largest developing country,China's demographic dividend has gradually declined and production costs have risen.China is actively seeking a breakthrough.In the process of promoting the reform,China has expanded the flexibility of RMB exchange rate on the basis of RMB exchange rate reform.At the same time,it has increased the scale of RMB export through regional construction and investment along "Belt and Road".China has steadily promoted RMB internationalization.This paper discusses the bottleneck of RMB internationalization under the new situation.At the same time,combined with the bottleneck of RMB internationalization,based on the revelation of the "Impossible Triangle",this paper constructs the RMB internationalization model of RMB monetary policy independence,RMB exchange rate elasticity and "Belt and Road" strategy.This paper specifically analyses the independence of RMB policy,the elasticity of RMB exchange rate and the strategy of "Belt and Road" to examine the basic conditions of RMB internationalization.Combined with the change of RMB exchange rate and the characteristics of "Belt and Road" strategy,this paper discusses how the RMB exchange rate in terms of trading motivation,prevention motivation,speculation motivation and asset purchase or holding angles influence the internationalization of RMB,and how the "Belt and Road" strategy under the terms of trade and capital terms influence the internationalization of RMB.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper adopts a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,and uses the real effective exchange rate of RMB,the import and export of China to some countries along "Belt and Road",the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves and the internationalization index of RMB to construct the VAR model of RMB internationalization.The empirical findings are as follows:first,the RMB exchange rate changes,the trade and investment of "Belt and Road" strategy promote the RMB internationalization process in the same direction.That is,the appreciation of RMB exchange rate promotes internationalization of RMB in the long run;and the strategy of "Belt and Road" promotes the internationalization of RMB through the improvement of trade and investment.Second,the process of RMB internationalization counteracts the RMB exchange rate and the "Belt and Road" strategy.The deep internationalization of RMB has promoted the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB in the long time;in the short term,it has promoted the growth of China's imports and exports to some countries along "Belt and Road" and the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves.In the long run,the impact of the internationalization of RMB on China's imports and(?)xports to some countries along the "Belt and Road" will tend to be 0.Also,the deep internationalization of RMB will reduce the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves.So in the process of RMB internationalization,it is necessary to steadily promote the marketization of RMB exchange rate mechanism,to strengthen the endogenous stability of RMB exchange rate,and to steadily promote the appreciation of RMB exchange rate.It should make reasonable use of the opportunity of "Belt and Road"strategy,increase the scale of trade and investment in the "Belt and Road" area.It should maintain a moderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves,improve the foreign exchange trading market,timely adjust the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves to improve foreign exchange management and resist external shocks.It also needs to push RMB settlement,reserve and pricing policies focusing on the functions of RMB overseas' settlement,reserve and pricing,improve the financial system,reduce the cost of financing,and enjoy the bonus of financial opening to the outside world.