Research On The Index System Of Counter Cyclical Capital Supervision

After the subprime crisis in the United States,the pro cyclical problem of the banking system has attracted the attention of regulatory authorities in various countries,and the macro prudential regulation has been paid more and more attention.The procyclicality problem also widely exists in the banking system of China.The introduction of counter cyclical capital buffer mechanism is of great significance to prevent the accumulation of systemic risks and maintain the stable development of China's finance.This paper studies the implementation of counter cyclical capital buffer in China in the following aspects:First of all,the paper combs the theoretical research on the link variables of Pro cyclical,macro prudential supervision and counter cyclical capital buffer.Secondly,this paper reviews the development of China's banking industry,discusses the necessity and progress of the implementation of counter cyclical capital buffer in China's banking industry.Thirdly,according to the withdrawal method of countercyclical capital buffer recommended by Bassel III agreement,the quarterly data from 2002 to 2018 in China are calculated and compared with the actual situation of China's macro-economy.It is concluded that the credit / GDP index,as the coupling variable of countercyclical capital buffer,is not consistent with the actual situation in China.Then,the economic data of China from 2005 to 2018 are empirically studied.It is found that weighted average interest rate and purchasing manager index of financial institutions have better effect on guiding the implementation of counter cyclical capital buffer.Finally,based on the theoretical research and empirical analysis results,this paper puts forward the following five suggestions for the implementation of China's counter cyclical capital buffer: first,draw on international experience based on its own reality;second,build a more perfect counter cyclical capital buffer index system;third,flexibly adopt targeted regulatory model;fourth,comprehensive supervision by various regulatory means;third 5? Attention should be paid to coordination and cooperation between regulatory authorities.