Research On The Countercyclical Capital Buffer Supervision Of China Commercial Banks:Effectiveness And Countermeasures

After the international financial crisis,the national financial regulatory authorities realized that the procyclicality of the banking industry can easily lead to the accumulation of systemic risk,so they began to pay attention to macro-prudential supervision.Basel III incorporates countercyclical capital buffer into the framework of macro-prudential supervision.China's banking industry has a clear procyclical.Appropriate introduction of countercyclical capital buffer mechanism has great significance to maintain financial stability,and build international standards of macro-prudential supervision framework.Therefore,this paper studies the effectiveness of countercyclical capital buffering mechanism in China.Mainly perform the following aspects of the work:Firstly,the domestic and foreign research is reviewed from the aspects of the pro-cyclical and countercyclical capital buffer supervision of the banking industry.This paper detailedly analyzes the internal and external causes of the procyclical formation of the banking industry.Secondly,it reviews the new contents and new changes in Basel III,introduces the framework of macro-prudential supervision,and presents the method of recursive capital buffer and the implementation principle.Thirdly,explains the necessity of implementing countercyclical capital buffer in China by analyzing the current situation of China's banking industry.Subsequently,the quarterly data of China's 2002-2016 was calculated based on the countercyclical capitalization method proposed by Basel III.By comparing the results of the trial and the development of China's macroeconomic and banking industry,we draw a conclusion that there is a deviation if only use credit / GDP to trigger counter-cyclical capital buffer.Therefore,we build a more accurate indicator system on the basis of exploring the credit / GDP.In conclusion,this paper argues that it is necessary to speed up the construction of accurate counter-cyclical capital buffer index system;and we need not only make decisions based on the rules of the indicators but also take into account China's macroeconomic policy camera choice;what's more,explore differentiated regulatory programs for different sizes of banks to avoid slowing economic growth caused by over provision countercyclical capital buffers.