| Crisis brings recession and changes at the same time. In2007, the sub-prime mortgage crisis, which began in the United States, gradually evolved into a global financial crisis. The crisis results not only the review in defects of the financial theories and the greed of capital market, but also changes in the financial regulatory system Since2009, the international organizations and national authorities have been exploring the drawbacks of regulation at both national and global levels, and put forward some reform programs containing the macro-prudential policy, which brings a new direction to financial regulation As the main tool of macro-prudential regulation policy, countercyclical capital buffers play an important role in responding to the systematic risk in time dimension and reducing pro-cyclical in the financial system Since1990s, the economic growth of China has been on a speedy new development period in all areas, associated with excessive credit expansion. The credit growth rate in China is much higher than that of the other major economies in the past decade. Within1999-2012, there were11years which the credit growth rate exceeded the GDP growth rate in China. Excessive credit expansion raises new challenges to the management of banking risk, and also prompted the need for systematic risk regulation of financial institutions. The Basel committee promulgated "BaselⅢ" and in December2010.China have also published a series of documents in2011and2012.These documents are the products of the post-crisis era, which reflect the development trend of international risk regulation under the new financial situation.This paper analyzes the pro-cyclicality formation mechanism of financial system and the main methods of countercyclical regulation based on the Basel protocol development process. The Basel Committee introduced countercyclical capital buffer mechanism to solve the pro-cycltcal problem, according to the suggestion and steps of Basel Ⅲ and the guidance, it studies the applicability and feasibility of the process in China by using the other linked variables, including Credit/GDP ratio, Social financing scale/GDP ratio, Increment/GDP, monthly Data. It follows the steps by calculating the ratio and using the Hodrick-Prescott filter (set smoothing parameter λ as400000) to calculate the value of trend and GAP, then transform the gap into the guide buffer add-on. And last, set L=2and H=10as threshold. The empirical results show that:(1)Credit/GDP and Social financing scale/GDP perform well, each of two has its point;(2)the performance of absolute indicators is better than that of increments, but the economic information reflected by increments cannot be ignored;(3)quarterly data are best choice for decision of countercyclical capital provision, monthly data can be used as reference variables to monitor changes in the credit. In short, the absolute value of quarterly data can well predict the economy prosperity and excessive credit growth in China. Combined with the goal and existing framework of the macro-prudential policy, the paper suggest that the regulatory authorities to use credit/GDP as the benchmark linked variable, assisted with Social of financing scale, while other variables included in the framework of countercyclical capital buffer index set to prevent misleading signal, and various policy sectors should focus on collaboration with each other. In the end, it put forward some problems need to be further studied. |
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