Research On Forecast Of Amount Of Affordable Housing In Changping District

"Beijing Urban Master Plan(2016 ～ 2035)" draws a blueprint for the development of urban and rural construction in Beijing.The "Planning" refers to Changping six times,and points out the direction for Changping’s housing development in the future.In the new era,Changping’s housing special planning,based on the characteristics of the district,accurately matches supply and demand,and the supply structure is scientific and reasonable.In order to optimize housing development in the district,a new path is explored.Solving the housing problem of low-and middle-income people is the key to improving the housing problem,and the government’s housing policy will also take this as the main body.Therefore,constructing a housing security system from the perspective of housing equity is an important work for housing problems in Changping District,and it is also an urgent problem to be solved.This article will focus on the security of basic housing in Changping District,and conduct research and analysis from the perspective of the demand for affordable housing.This article first introduces the main research objects of affordable housing concepts,systems and related theoretical basis,adheres to the principle of affordable housing demand prediction,summarizes and summarizes the influencing factors of domestic and foreign scholars on the demand for affordable housing market,and determines the gray correlation analysis to determine The importance of income level in the forecast of affordable housing demand in Changping District.The method of combining the single-model forecast results with variable weights is used to predict the per capita disposable income level of urban residents in Changping District,and then based on the access of affordable housing The income standard in the policy determines the housing security ratio based on income in Changping District,combined with the area-based housing security ratio derived from the per capita housing construction area of Changping District,the smaller one is selected as the final housing security ratio in Changping District.The historical population data of 2010-2018 is used to predict the total population of Changping District in the next few years to determine the potential demand for affordable housing in Changping District,and then to obtain the effective demand for affordable housing in Changping District according to the relevant data of the housing consumption ratio The amount of the two is subtracted to obtain the actual demand for affordable housing in Changping District.The final analysis of the resultsleads to the following conclusions:(1)The housing security ratio determined based on comprehensive comparison before(after)2018 is based on the relatively small value of the security ratio based on area(income).(2)As the per-capita housing construction area increases year by year,the proportion of insured households determined according to the area standard relatively decreases and the total number of households in Changping District increases year by year.Therefore,the actual demand for affordable housing in Changping District has not changed significantly.(3)When both the income level and the average housing price increase,the restrictions on the application for affordable housing have not been adjusted accordingly.Finally,based on the results of various studies,the demand-oriented recommendations for affordable housing in Changping District are put forward.This article builds a more accurate forecast model of affordable housing demand.First,it can ensure that the government can fully grasp the actual demand for affordable housing in Changping District in the next few years,and based on this,put forward recommendations for affordable housing with characteristics of Changping District.The residents of Changping District rent houses scientifically,and the government formulates a supply strategy based on the forecast results of affordable housing to protect demand,and strengthens the supervision of affordable housing construction to guide the healthy housing market to operate.6 figures,31 tables,52 references.