Research On The Forecast Of Express Delivery Demand In Anhui Province

In today's economic situation,as a new service industry,express delivery industry can not only provide efficient and flexible transportation services,bring many conveniences to people's lives,but also play a positive role in promoting economic development and become a new bright spot of regional economic growth.Therefore,using a reasonable quantitative model to predict the express delivery demand scientifically and effectively predicting the change trend of regional express delivery volume can provide data reference for the regional express delivery industry to grasp the intensity of express delivery demand,and try to avoid the problem of unsatisfied demand caused by the insufficient supply capacity of express delivery,and resource waste caused by the excess supply capacity.so as to ensure the healthy development of regional express delivery industry is of great significance.It is of great significance to the healthy development of regional express delivery industry.This paper takes the express demand of Anhui Province as the research object.On the basis of analyzing and summarizing domestic and foreign scholars' research on express delivery,firstly,it determines the relevant concepts of regional express demand,and analyzes the relevant factors affecting express delivery demand from the economic and non economic perspectives.Selecting 12 influencing factors to establish a preliminary index system,and using the grey correlation model to screen out 10 factors with relatively high correlation,so as to establish the index system suitable for forecasting express demand in Anhui Province.Then,considering the characteristics of express demand prediction and the advantages and disadvantages of forecast methods,the gray system,BP neural network and their combination model are selected to predict the express demand,and the corresponding prediction model is constructed.Finally,using the previously established prediction model to predict and analyze the express delivery demand in Anhui Province.The result shows that the series grey neural network model has the best prediction effect.The model is used to predict the express delivery volume of Anhui Province in the next five years.The development trend of the future express delivery demand in the region is analyzed based on the prediction results.On this basis,three suggestions are put forward for the development of express delivery industry in Anhui Province,which can provide theoretical reference for the government to plan the express industry reasonably and formulate the development policy scientifically.